Poll: Herrell leads Vasquez, governor’s race a statistical tie
A new poll conducted by Emerson College for KRQE 13 shows Republican incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell of New Mexico’s Second Congressional District is leading her Democrat challenger by double digits.
Among likely voters. Herrell got 54 percent support, while Vasquez got 41 percent. Four percent of respondents were undecided.
When the poll factored in undecided voters, Herrell led Vasquez by 54 to 44 percent — a ten percentage point advantage.
These numbers are starkly different than the Albuquerque Journal poll released earlier this week, claiming Herrell was trailing Vasquez by two percentage points.
The poll surveyed 203 likely voters between October 25 and October 28 with a margin of error of 5.6 percent.
The same Emmerson poll also found Republican Mark Ronchetti trailing Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by a mere three percentage points.
However, when factoring in undecided voters and who they were leaning toward voting for at the time, Lujan Grisham got 50 percent support while Ronchetti garnered 48 percent — only a two-point lead.
The governor poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters during the same timeline. The margin of error was a smaller 3.02 percent, meaning the race is in a statistical tie.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson College’s poll an A-, meaning it is one of the best in the nation.
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