The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of Virginia and New Mexico from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in its latest forecast for the 2024 election.
This adjustment comes amid Joe Biden’s ongoing struggles in polls across several states, particularly with black and Hispanic voters.
“Virginia and New Mexico are the only two states in our Solid Democrat column that Biden carried by 11 points or less in 2020,” remarked Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter. “Given the current polling, they are now in the mid-single digit range and, as such, move into the Likely Democrat column.”
Walter added that while the Cook team believes these states “are at low risk of flipping to [45th President Donald] Trump, they are no longer the ‘gimmes’ a Solid Democrat rating suggests.”
If Trump were to win either state in November, he would achieve something no Republican presidential candidate has done since George W. Bush carried both states in his 2004 re-election.
Virginia, once a Republican stronghold, has consistently voted Democratic since 2008. However, recent polling indicates potential changes. Walter cited a FOX News poll showing Biden and Trump “in a dead heat” in Virginia, with both receiving 48% in a head-to-head matchup.
Trump’s unexpected competitiveness in Virginia is attributed to his rising support among black voters. While Biden still leads among black voters, his margin has significantly decreased from 81 points in 2020 to 48 points in the latest survey, with Trump increasing his share from 9% to 25%.
Walter noted, “The fact that the Biden campaign is spending as much time reaching out to Black voters as they are suggests that they too are worried about lagging support from this critical constituency.” She remained skeptical, however, that Trump would maintain his current level of support among black voters, suggesting the real danger for Biden is that many black voters may choose to stay home.
In 2020, Biden won Virginia by just over 10 points. The state has also voted Democratic in the previous three presidential elections, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by five points in 2016 and Barack Obama winning it by six points in both 2008 and 2012.
Virginia’s recent Democratic success is largely attributed to the heavily populated, deep-blue suburbs of Washington D.C. in the north. Despite this, Republicans have recently seen victories in statewide elections, with Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears, and Jason Miyares winning the top three statewide offices in 2021.
Regarding New Mexico, Walter mentioned that while there hasn’t been recent public polling, a well-placed Republican source indicated Biden’s lead has narrowed to around four points, reflecting similar trends in Arizona and Nevada.
Walter highlighted that “43% of New Mexico’s citizen voting-age population is Hispanic,” suggesting Biden’s challenges with this demographic could have a significant impact in the state.
Polling has consistently shown Biden underperforming in battleground states with substantial Hispanic populations. For instance, a recent New York Times/Siena poll found Trump leading Biden by 12 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters in Nevada, where roughly 20% of voters are Hispanic. Similarly, Trump leads in Arizona by seven points among registered voters and six points among likely voters, with Hispanic voters making up about a quarter of the electorate.
An Axios/Ipsos poll reported that from December 2021 to March 2024, Biden’s favorability among Latinos dropped 12 points, while Trump’s favorability increased by eight points. This shift has narrowed Biden’s lead among Latinos who plan to vote in November to just three points.
In 2020, Biden won New Mexico by a margin of 10.8%. The state had also voted Democratic in previous elections, with Clinton winning by eight points in 2016, Obama by 10 points in 2012, and 15 points in 2008. Bush narrowly won New Mexico in 2004, defeating John Kerry by less than one percent, as reported by Catholic Vote.
