New Mexico no longer safe for Democrats: Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of Virginia and New Mexico from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in its latest forecast for the 2024 election.

This adjustment comes amid Joe Biden’s ongoing struggles in polls across several states, particularly with black and Hispanic voters.

“Virginia and New Mexico are the only two states in our Solid Democrat column that Biden carried by 11 points or less in 2020,” remarked Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter. “Given the current polling, they are now in the mid-single digit range and, as such, move into the Likely Democrat column.”

Walter added that while the Cook team believes these states “are at low risk of flipping to [45th President Donald] Trump, they are no longer the ‘gimmes’ a Solid Democrat rating suggests.”

If Trump were to win either state in November, he would achieve something no Republican presidential candidate has done since George W. Bush carried both states in his 2004 re-election.

Virginia, once a Republican stronghold, has consistently voted Democratic since 2008. However, recent polling indicates potential changes. Walter cited a FOX News poll showing Biden and Trump “in a dead heat” in Virginia, with both receiving 48% in a head-to-head matchup.

Trump’s unexpected competitiveness in Virginia is attributed to his rising support among black voters. While Biden still leads among black voters, his margin has significantly decreased from 81 points in 2020 to 48 points in the latest survey, with Trump increasing his share from 9% to 25%.

Walter noted, “The fact that the Biden campaign is spending as much time reaching out to Black voters as they are suggests that they too are worried about lagging support from this critical constituency.” She remained skeptical, however, that Trump would maintain his current level of support among black voters, suggesting the real danger for Biden is that many black voters may choose to stay home.

In 2020, Biden won Virginia by just over 10 points. The state has also voted Democratic in the previous three presidential elections, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by five points in 2016 and Barack Obama winning it by six points in both 2008 and 2012.

Virginia’s recent Democratic success is largely attributed to the heavily populated, deep-blue suburbs of Washington D.C. in the north. Despite this, Republicans have recently seen victories in statewide elections, with Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears, and Jason Miyares winning the top three statewide offices in 2021.

Regarding New Mexico, Walter mentioned that while there hasn’t been recent public polling, a well-placed Republican source indicated Biden’s lead has narrowed to around four points, reflecting similar trends in Arizona and Nevada.

Walter highlighted that “43% of New Mexico’s citizen voting-age population is Hispanic,” suggesting Biden’s challenges with this demographic could have a significant impact in the state.

Polling has consistently shown Biden underperforming in battleground states with substantial Hispanic populations. For instance, a recent New York Times/Siena poll found Trump leading Biden by 12 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters in Nevada, where roughly 20% of voters are Hispanic. Similarly, Trump leads in Arizona by seven points among registered voters and six points among likely voters, with Hispanic voters making up about a quarter of the electorate.

An Axios/Ipsos poll reported that from December 2021 to March 2024, Biden’s favorability among Latinos dropped 12 points, while Trump’s favorability increased by eight points. This shift has narrowed Biden’s lead among Latinos who plan to vote in November to just three points.

In 2020, Biden won New Mexico by a margin of 10.8%. The state had also voted Democratic in previous elections, with Clinton winning by eight points in 2016, Obama by 10 points in 2012, and 15 points in 2008. Bush narrowly won New Mexico in 2004, defeating John Kerry by less than one percent, as reported by Catholic Vote.


17 thoughts on “New Mexico no longer safe for Democrats: Cook Political Report”

  1. As a half Hispanic voter, I’ve been a conservative since the Reagan presidency. I believe in the Republican platform but there are so many RINOs who have sold us out to the NWO WEF elitist unelected corporatist jerks that are pulling strings to destroy this country. Just want to put that out as a disclaimer. Younger Hispanics aren’t buying that “Generational Democrat” BS and are critically looking at the weakening of our country as a slap in the face. This is a golden opportunity to bring Hispanics and Black Americans into conservatism if the RNC doesn’t screw it up. Once President Trump is back in power, for the following elections, we need to critically review those in charge of the Republican Party in NM and nationwide and get fighters and not sold out wimps. That’s the thing that pisses me off is that this state’s Republican Senator arty is weak as hell, because I have not seen them put in candidates to challenge Democrats in nearly every office open? Why? Is it a problem in recruiting? Can they really tell me that there are no qualified Republicans to fill the ballot for judgeships and offices? I hate mainstream media because they are unabashedly doing a psyop on anyone who watches mainstream media holding the water for these communist democrats. The Social media I view supports my point that more and more younger and some older Hispanics and Black Americans are seeing through the BS, and there will be a gaggle of Democrats trying to figure out how they lost the Presidency, Senate, and House. But at our level, NM is behind the curve because for some stupid reason our citizens for the most part, believe all the BS that MLG, Heinrich, Lujan, Leger-Hernandez, Stansbury, and the state congressional democrats say, despite the evidence that this state is in the toilet on every quality of living issue compared to their states. What is Mr. Pearce and the state RNC doing about it? Nada. Weak sauce!

    1. Great points and yes New Mexico RNC needs new leadership and to seriously step up and fight. We can’t lose this state again. #VoteRightNM

    2. 100%.
      I have actually written the the NM RNC and voiced my disgust over the absolute lack of balls they have shown. Pearce can talk all he wants….zero to back it. I was horrified when they put the moron weatherman up against the Oompa Loompa. We are officially the Ghetto State as of now. You can actually feel the despair and defeatedness of the people in the state when shopping for the meager selection of food on our shelves. It is sad, it is depressing and it makes me more angry than I have been in a very long time. How accepting most of NM is to even worse poverty is proof (to me) that many have given up and just accept the way things have become.

      1. Pamela, I lived most my life in NM. I’m now in FL but most my friends and family are still in NM so I go back to visit when I can. The biggest problem in NM, as I see it, is the media. Thank goodness there is the Pinon Post. And thank goodness people are finding that there are alternatives to the MSM.

    3. Bravo. 👏👏 You have said it just like we not only see it but how it really is. This is pure 🔥.
      Somehow someway someone needs to remove Steve Pearce. He does nothing to support the GOP in New Mexico.

    4. Our problem in the Republican party is that our incumbents will not allow anyone to run who isn’t one of them. And they sure don’t like people who can think for themselves. And this business of them sating they are move to a different district so they can change which house they are in stinks!! And SE NM did a bunch of that. They don’t want new blood in Santa Fe. And they sure don’t like grassroots folks. And if you take a good look at their voting records you might be surprised at how unconserative they are!

      1. We just had that exact situation in district 27. The 10 term senator stepped down to collude with the MLG to give his seat to a cronie from the house. The governor appointed the house member to serve the remainder of the one year left on the senator’s term. Come election time, the Santa Fe insiders piled on with endorsements to keep either of the grassroots opponents from getting elected. Fortunately, this time, the voters saw through the charade and voted a new leader into the seat. Hopefully that is just the beginning of the voters taking a stand against the shenanigans sitting legislators employ to control who gets into office!

    1. Mr Pearce is a rino. He is a Trump hater.. that is why he does nothing to help the conservatives in this state. If everything they say about Hispanics and black then NM should turn red and MLG and Toulouse Oliver will turn purple with rage.

  2. The NM Republican Party is definitely weak, however, I don’t think Pearce is working for the D’s. What is happening as has always been my comment is New Mexicans still follow main stream media talking points and fall for them 100% and therefore vote Democrat and hence why we moved out of New Mexico. I would love at some point to come back to my home state and hope that New Mexicans wake up to the Democrat BS.

  3. Pamela, I lived most my life in NM. I’m now in FL but most my friends and family are still in NM so I go back to visit when I can. The biggest problem in NM, as I see it, is the media. Thank goodness there is the Pinon Post. And thank goodness people are finding that there are alternatives to the MSM.

  4. I woke up to MSM 2015, a friend and saw so much wrong, corrupt, it blew me away! Right now I can’t get into the voting info, online, tells me I’m not there since 2020. I was there in 2016 I was in a group on FB and a lady seemingly wanting to help me, seemed nice, sent me a link to county Voting Info, I fell for it, it all started then.

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