New leftist poll shows Trump polling within within single digits of Biden in NM
A new poll commissioned by the leftist NM Political Report sheds light on the competitive 2024 landscape in New Mexico, indicating that 45th President Donald Trump is just a single digit away from securing victory against Joe Biden. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, engaged 767 New Mexico voters between August 23 and 24.
Despite New Mexico’s recent history of favoring Democrat candidates, this poll presents a compelling case for a potential shift in the political tide. Joe Biden holds a modest lead with 49 percent of the polled voters against both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. In a hypothetical rematch against Trump, the 45th President garners 41 percent of the vote, with 10 percent of voters remaining undecided.
The electoral history of New Mexico, which has leaned Democratic in recent years, cannot be denied. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden was reported to have won over Trump by a margin of 10.79 percent, garnering 54.29 percent of the vote to Trump’s 43.5 percent. Notably, the last Republican to win New Mexico was George W. Bush in 2004, marking a potential turning point for the state’s political landscape.

Breaking down the respondents, 52 percent indicated their support for Biden, while 41 percent cast their vote for Trump; 7 percent either voted for another candidate or refrained from voting altogether.
However, Biden manages to maintain his lead despite holding a higher disapproval rating than approval among New Mexico voters. The poll reveals that 45 percent of respondents approve of Biden’s presidential performance, while 48 percent express disapproval.
The poll encompassed 767 New Mexico voters, utilizing both landline and text message outreach on August 23 and 24. The survey employed a split of 35 percent landline and 65 percent text message contacts. The margin of error for topline questions stands at 3.5 percent, with subpopulations likely to have a slightly larger margin of error. This poll serves as a noteworthy indication that the political landscape in New Mexico may be on the cusp of change, opening the door for increased conservative support in future elections.
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