On Monday, the renowned Trafalgar Group released its latest poll in New Mexico, showing Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti leading Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by 1.1 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Ronchetti led Lujan Grisham 46.6 percent to her 45.5 percent, while Libertarian Karen Bedonie garnered 3.9 percent, and four percent remained undecided.
The poll, which oversampled Democrats (47.6 percent) versus Republicans (36.3 percent) and oversampled women (52 percent) versus men (48 percent), is a clear indicator that Ronchetti has made up the small gap shown in other previous polls, showing him trailing by only single digits.
The survey was conducted between October 19 and October 21 with 1077 respondents, a very generous sample size.
Lujan Grisham has been taking a great amount of heat in recent weeks over her numerous scandals while in office, most notably the violent criminals she released from prison early and her $150,000 payoff to a former staffer over claims she groped his crotch.
Expanded early voting has already begun in New Mexico, with 83,433 ballots cast so far, as of Monday morning, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s Office.
FiveThirtyEight rates the Trafalgar Group as an A- pollster, making it one of the most accurate around.
29 thoughts on “New poll shows Ronchetti leading Lujan Grisham”
While that poll looks good, it’s critical to not be lulled to sleep and get apathetic. The real deal happens November 8 and the only one that counts.
The unelected Vice President is coming to speak for Michelle Wuhan Gruesome today. They will talk the university liberals into voting for her. Then they are supposedly having a party to raise money. Get out there and vote for Ronchetti if you care anything about our state. These people are evil and will propagandize to the max. I am sure they will use abortion since they lose in all issues except for murder. Bedonie, shame on you for acting like a sneaky, long-time evil politician. I am praying for Ronchetti and this election. We the people need to take our state and country back.
I’m voting Ronchetti as is my fiance. We haven’t participated in any polls. But yes, we all need to vote on November 8th for Mark Ronchetti! We need to get rid of these scandalous Democrats running everything before it’s too late!
Michelle needs yo go.She has hurt way to many people there jobs and livelyhoods.Im voting for Ron I pray to God he wins.michell o lyrics loves herself and the money she is getting now.It has been proven allready
Proven in New Mexico dominion machines coded 25% in favor of commie dems, baby killers
Bedonie needs to drop out and give her support to Ronchetti. Her 4% will puh him over the top
Agreed! Bedonie is a spoiler. She doesn’t truly care about New Mexico.
Never happen I won’t support Ronchettie the fraud I’d vote for Grisham before I vote for that never trumper sack of shit fake
Your spite will only create more pain and hardship for NM. GROW UP!
Stop your childish temper tantrum, and support Ronchetti. MLG IS PURE EVIL!!
Michelle is the fraud as well as a lier and a baby killer.glad sh has you
It needs to be emphasized more than ever. Don’t forget to vote!!!
Great news. However New Mexicans need to stop early voting, This gives evil dem’s the information they need to cheat. Suddenly Dominion machines will have our ancestors dead for years voting democracp.
It might be wise to check to see if your name has been purged from rolls if you are registered as a Republican or Independent. I know this happened in the 1970’s in northern NM. The voter didn’t find out until they went to vote at the poll.
Being purged from the rolls is no longer an issue. Our state has SDR (same day registration). Just go to a polling location with a current photo ID and register and vote on the same day. Use the democrats tools to your advantage.
Dominion will do whatever they tell it to do
Encouraging but nothing matters if we cannot outvote the cheat that is built in to these elections. The best way to do that is massive Republican turnout on election Day. I’m not a big Ronchetti fan but I also do not want another 4 years of MLG. So I will swallow my pride and cast my vote for Ronchettie and I encourage all of the Bedonie supporters to do the same.
If Bedonie wants to be a voice then she is going to have to muster enough support within the Republican party similar to how Trump did it. The fact is that a 3rd party candidate will not work and does more harm than good.
If the oversampling is correct, then it is possible that Ronchetti is actually doing better against Malevolent Michelle than what this poll shows.
The weather guy should stick to weather and keep his nose out of women’s health.
How can you republican women think it’s ok for idiot men to control what you do with your own body.
Idiot men do not control your body. Only you and you alone control your body. Very weak excuse to vote for a liberal socialist Democrat!
I heard what Mr. Ronchetti said, perhaps liberal democrats are hard of hearing or just have selective hearing. I have not heard one thing about the babies who are being killed. I do believe that under certain circumstances to abort a baby is understandable, but it’s beyond me why someone would wait for months to end a pregnancy unless their life was at stake. That all being said I believe that this man is the best person for the office of governor. Stop listening to the lies no one is perfect. VOTE
Women can do whatever they want to their own body. Just don’t murder other bodies.
Totally agree with that Terry
I read all the comments and to each his own all I see in ads is both candidates attacking each other and not really talking about what they are going to do if elected for the people of New Mexico inflation, crime, the economy. The people are blaming Biden for the rise of gas prices which is not his fault and as for the crime with the guns and all the school shootings We the People want to lash out to blame the gun activist that’s not going to stop what’s in any individual mind to do the heinous and unthinkable that they do. As a pro life individual and a God fearing person I believe it’s up to that person to decide because in the end that individual will have to answer to God not man. We need to quit attacking and fighting one another this is America and is supposed to be the land of the free and the home of the Brave. Just a thought, from a independent voter..
Not everyone believes in a Christian God and values. Making hateful judging comments does not make a good witness and testimony. There is supposed to be a division between church and state. I don’t understand the comments of bringing back our state/country. Back to what? Superior white people. I’m sorry, but this brown girl does not see it.
To those who think the weatherman is the answer….please watch this.
Unfortunately, the best answer is NOT on the ticket. I’m not so much voting for Ronchetti as I’m voting for my values. He’s not the perfect candidate but he’s the closest to a conservative choice we have. Hold your nose if you have to and let’s get rid of Gruesome.