On Monday, the renowned Trafalgar Group released its latest poll in New Mexico, showing Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti leading Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by 1.1 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Ronchetti led Lujan Grisham 46.6 percent to her 45.5 percent, while Libertarian Karen Bedonie garnered 3.9 percent, and four percent remained undecided.
The poll, which oversampled Democrats (47.6 percent) versus Republicans (36.3 percent) and oversampled women (52 percent) versus men (48 percent), is a clear indicator that Ronchetti has made up the small gap shown in other previous polls, showing him trailing by only single digits.
The survey was conducted between October 19 and October 21 with 1077 respondents, a very generous sample size.
Lujan Grisham has been taking a great amount of heat in recent weeks over her numerous scandals while in office, most notably the violent criminals she released from prison early and her $150,000 payoff to a former staffer over claims she groped his crotch.
Expanded early voting has already begun in New Mexico, with 83,433 ballots cast so far, as of Monday morning, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s Office.
FiveThirtyEight rates the Trafalgar Group as an A- pollster, making it one of the most accurate around.