New report measured states’ population growth: See where NM ranks
The Pew Charitable Trusts has released an insightful report on American population growth patterns, which holds significant implications for New Mexico and its policymakers.
According to the report, New Mexico’s population growth has been notably sluggish since 2008, trailing behind the national average.
New Mexico’s growth rate has been at 0.34 percent since 2008, while states such as Arizona had a 1.13 percent growth rate and Colorado had 1.23 percent growth. New Mexico’s neighboring state of Texas, albeit classified as a southern state, saw 1.52 percent growth.
More strikingly, when examining a 15-year span, New Mexico’s growth lags behind every state west of Kansas.
The most concerning projection from Pew is that by 2040, New Mexico is expected to experience a net population decline. Between 2030 and 2040, New Mexico’s population is projected to be -0.03 percent, declining the most among younger people ages 20-24, with a -0.27 percent rate.
“In the 2020s, New Mexico is one of the 25 states with projected decreases in population of 25-to-64-year-olds and younger. And in the 2030s, New Mexico is one of the 40 states with a projected increase,” Pew noted.
On a national scale, The Pew Center wrote, “According to the center’s projections, growth is likely to remain tepid through 2040 with the national population forecasted to grow at about the same pace from 2020 to 2030 as the prior decade—already the slowest on record—before dropping to new lows from 2030 to 2040. In the 2020s, 31 states may face population slowdowns compared with the previous decade, and the number climbs to 45 in the next decade. The Census Bureau also projects that nationally, population growth will remain moderate at best and largely attributes that forecast to declining fertility rates combined with rising death rates as baby boomers age.”
While it is not the only state anticipated to see a population decrease, it stands out as the only state west of the Mississippi River with such a forecast.
However, this future is not inevitable. New Mexico has the potential to leverage its oil and gas revenues to implement much-needed policy reforms, as noted by the Rio Grande Foundation’s Errors of Enchantment. Such changes would require proactive measures from the state legislature.