New Mexico the key to Trump’s victory? The latest poll shows tight race
New Mexico, historically overlooked in national election strategies, is emerging as a potential battleground state for the 2024 presidential race. Recent polling shows that 45th President Donald Trump is closing in on Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, with just a three-point difference between them in the latest KA Consulting poll. Trump is polling at 46% while Harris holds 49%, but the margin of error of +/- 4% makes the race essentially a tie.
Key Issues Favor Trump
The economy and border security are two key issues driving New Mexico voters to the polls this year. In the KA Consulting survey, 47% of respondents cited the economy and inflation as their top concern, followed closely by 43% pointing to immigration and border security. These are two areas where Trump has traditionally performed well, particularly in a state that shares a border with Mexico. Trump’s stance on these topics aligns with many New Mexico voters, especially among its sizable Hispanic population.
Trump’s improved standing with Hispanic voters nationwide is another factor making New Mexico more competitive. For instance, a recent Florida poll showed 55% of Hispanic voters supporting Trump, a demographic where Harris has seen diminished support. According to NBC News, Harris has lost ground with Latino voters, now polling at 54% compared to Trump’s 40% among this critical group. This is a significant shift, given that Trump garnered just 19% of the Latino vote in 2016 and 27% in 2020.
Kennedy and Anti-Harris Campaigns Boost Trump
Further complicating the race is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to withdraw and endorse Trump, which could provide a notable boost. Kennedy was polling around 8% in New Mexico, and his exit might sway undecided voters toward Trump. Additionally, an aggressive Election Freedom Inc. ad campaign targeting Harris’s policy failures has the potential to further shift voter sentiment in Trump’s favor.
High Turnout in Early Voting
High early voting turnout also signals that New Mexico could be in play. According to the Albuquerque Journal, Republicans slightly outpaced Democrats in early voting, with 4.6% of registered Republicans casting ballots compared to 4.2% of Democrats by mid-October. While New Mexico hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, the tight polling numbers suggest that the state could be within reach for Trump in 2024.
Given these trends, New Mexico could very well emerge as a key state in the 2024 election despite its long-standing blue leanings. Trump’s strong focus on issues important to New Mexicans and his improving numbers among Hispanic voters make this a state to watch closely in the weeks ahead.
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