Poll spooks Heinrich, showing him with razor-thin lead over Domenici

Since Pete Domenici’s victory in 2002, no Republican has secured a U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico. Currently, Republicans are hopeful that Domenici’s daughter, Nella Domenici, a former CFO at Bridgewater Associates and a newcomer to politics, might challenge Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich.

While this race isn’t a primary focus for Senate Republicans, who are directing most of their efforts towards states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, Nella Domenici’s potential financial backing and favorable political conditions could make the contest more competitive than expected.

A Red Oak Strategies poll conducted for Domenici and the National Republican Senatorial Committee indicates that she has the potential to grow her support base in the months leading up to Election Day. The poll, based on a survey of 1,800 registered voters, shows that while 66% of New Mexicans are unfamiliar with Nella, 46% recall her father, Pete Domenici, positively and support her candidacy. “This is a huge advantage as the campaign begins to deliver Nella’s message across direct voter contact platforms,” noted her team in a strategy memo shared with the National Review.

The poll revealed Heinrich leading Domenici by only three points among likely voters, within a 2.3 percent margin of error. However, Domenici closed this gap when respondents heard positive information about her and negative messages about Heinrich.

Despite New Mexico’s strong Democrat leaning and expectations of an easy win for Heinrich, as indicated by forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, Domenici’s campaign believes Joe Biden’s declining favorability ratings might negatively impact Heinrich. The strategy memo highlighted Biden’s 42% favorable and 56% unfavorable ratings compared to Trump’s 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable ratings, suggesting potential vulnerabilities for Democrats.

Domenici’s financial resources and business background, with experience at Bridgewater, Credit Suisse, and Citadel Investment Group, could prove advantageous, especially if she secures substantial contributions from Wall Street contacts. Notably, her latest Federal Election Commission report includes a donation from Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman.

If Domenici can improve her fundraising, which was around $1 million compared to Heinrich’s $4.4 million as of mid-May, Democrats might have to allocate more resources to defend Heinrich, diverting funds from more competitive battleground states.

Domenici launched her first campaign ad last month, and Heinrich responded with attacks this week. Her campaign plans to criticize Heinrich on energy policy, immigration, and public safety while adopting a centrist stance on abortion, opposing a federal ban on the procedure.

“Nella Domenici is well-positioned to take on Martin Heinrich and make this race competitive. New Mexico is a race to watch,” stated NRSC spokeswoman Maggie Abboud.

Heinrich’s team responded to the poll results in a fundraising email, calling it a “dead heat.” His team wrote, “This new poll is concerning enough. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee has put their full support behind Martin’s opponent and is calling New Mexico ‘a race to watch.’ NPR reports that the state has ‘pivotal races’ for the House and the Senate — including Martin’s — that could ‘help determine the control of those chambers.’”


25 thoughts on “Poll spooks Heinrich, showing him with razor-thin lead over Domenici”

  1. Boy, would I LOVE to see Heinrich defeated. He has been a shill ever since Udall left. I often send him emails and ask for a response. His responses rarely have anything to do with what I am requesting. He has sometimes finished up his (not really his, but his handler’s) crappy answers by saying “though we disagree on this point,” blah, blah, blah. He is less than worthless. Worthlessless.

    1. I had the same response years ago, when he was probably representative. I guess that’s what happens when one is not part of the “family”.

    1. He:doesn’t care about the people of NM. Last I heard he doesn’t even live in the state. When he started talking about abortion on Veterans Day that was it. I’m a Republican and I’m going with Nella.

  2. We are last in the things that count (education). PED needs to be cleaned up we’re more concerned about abortion than crime VOTE REPUBLICAN

  3. Not sure why we want someone that does not live in NM to represent us. Heinrich does not represent NMs, most of NMs are some where in the very conservative democrats area if not liberal to hard corp Republican. We want our control of our children and schools, less gov, our right to the 2A (which has been breached by democratic control, yes the dems voted against the US and NM constitution). Anyway not sure what Domenici has going for her except name recognition but she better no be a RINO and ready to make waves if required.

  4. We have to vote RED in order to turn NM around. By voting demo the hole gets deeper and closer to the commie bottom.

  5. Nothing can be worse than what we’ve got now. Time to take out the grifter trash that’s making third-world status permanent for NM.

  6. John Torrey Baird

    When will Nella get on board the Trump train? We need supporters of America First! There’s no difference between Heinrich and RINOs like Larry Hogan. Get with the program Nella and win a landslide!

  7. John Torrey Baird

    Nella’ s contribution from Blackstone should raise suspicion. Google Blackstone China. Who will Nella represent? NM or the Chinese?

    1. Blackstone was founded by Erik Prince. Not exactly a prince of a man. But you can see the Tucker Carlson interview with him. Blackrock are the really really bad actors.

  8. John Torrey Baird

    Please correct me if I am wrong but I seem to remember that Pete had a fund raising event attended by Bush in Rio Rancho that raised 5 Million dollars. Didn’t Pete decide not to run and pocketed the donations prior to campaign financing reform? I think a motorcycle cop who was part of Bush’s motorcade crashed at the airport and died. So much for the Domenici legacy. Again please correct me if I am wrong.

    1. John Torrey Baird Jr

      “Saint Pete” said in a statement he was deeply saddened to learn about Casey’s death. “The thoughts and prayers of my wife Nancy and I are with his family during this dark time and we offer our most sincere condolences” the senator said. No mention if the senator’s “sincere condolences” included a contribution to funeral expenses or any financial aid to the Casey family from the $434,000 raised at the event.

  9. Pro rasslin’…political version.

    Did I miss the part where Heinrich was “spooked” or was that headline an attention-grabber?

    While I would never support scum like Heinrich I think I need to point out that there is no such thing as a republicrat hero that is coming to “save us”. This is not something we vote our way out of.

    1. I agree. However, I would like to see his easy money raking job come to an end. Might as well put another reptile in and get that reptile out.

  10. I want my state back. Get rid of the corruption. My vote is for “ Nella Domenic.”

    Heinrich Said he went to Boys State I do not see him following what he learned.

    1. That’s right! Vote harder everybody. End corruption. Throw the demopublicans out and replace them with republicrats!

  11. Why would we vote for him? He lives in Maryland and rarely shows up in New Mexico unless it is time to scam New Mexican’s to vote for him.

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