Poll spooks Heinrich, showing him with razor-thin lead over Domenici

Since Pete Domenici’s victory in 2002, no Republican has secured a U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico. Currently, Republicans are hopeful that Domenici’s daughter, Nella Domenici, a former CFO at Bridgewater Associates and a newcomer to politics, might challenge Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich.

While this race isn’t a primary focus for Senate Republicans, who are directing most of their efforts towards states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, Nella Domenici’s potential financial backing and favorable political conditions could make the contest more competitive than expected.

A Red Oak Strategies poll conducted for Domenici and the National Republican Senatorial Committee indicates that she has the potential to grow her support base in the months leading up to Election Day. The poll, based on a survey of 1,800 registered voters, shows that while 66% of New Mexicans are unfamiliar with Nella, 46% recall her father, Pete Domenici, positively and support her candidacy. “This is a huge advantage as the campaign begins to deliver Nella’s message across direct voter contact platforms,” noted her team in a strategy memo shared with the National Review.

The poll revealed Heinrich leading Domenici by only three points among likely voters, within a 2.3 percent margin of error. However, Domenici closed this gap when respondents heard positive information about her and negative messages about Heinrich.

Despite New Mexico’s strong Democrat leaning and expectations of an easy win for Heinrich, as indicated by forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, Domenici’s campaign believes Joe Biden’s declining favorability ratings might negatively impact Heinrich. The strategy memo highlighted Biden’s 42% favorable and 56% unfavorable ratings compared to Trump’s 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable ratings, suggesting potential vulnerabilities for Democrats.

Domenici’s financial resources and business background, with experience at Bridgewater, Credit Suisse, and Citadel Investment Group, could prove advantageous, especially if she secures substantial contributions from Wall Street contacts. Notably, her latest Federal Election Commission report includes a donation from Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman.

If Domenici can improve her fundraising, which was around $1 million compared to Heinrich’s $4.4 million as of mid-May, Democrats might have to allocate more resources to defend Heinrich, diverting funds from more competitive battleground states.

Domenici launched her first campaign ad last month, and Heinrich responded with attacks this week. Her campaign plans to criticize Heinrich on energy policy, immigration, and public safety while adopting a centrist stance on abortion, opposing a federal ban on the procedure.

“Nella Domenici is well-positioned to take on Martin Heinrich and make this race competitive. New Mexico is a race to watch,” stated NRSC spokeswoman Maggie Abboud.

Heinrich’s team responded to the poll results in a fundraising email, calling it a “dead heat.” His team wrote, “This new poll is concerning enough. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee has put their full support behind Martin’s opponent and is calling New Mexico ‘a race to watch.’ NPR reports that the state has ‘pivotal races’ for the House and the Senate — including Martin’s — that could ‘help determine the control of those chambers.’”