Poll: Herrell leads Vasquez, governor’s race a statistical tie

A new poll conducted by Emerson College for KRQE 13 shows Republican incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell of New Mexico’s Second Congressional District is leading her Democrat challenger by double digits. 

Among likely voters. Herrell got 54 percent support, while Vasquez got 41 percent. Four percent of respondents were undecided. 

When the poll factored in undecided voters, Herrell led Vasquez by 54 to 44 percent — a ten percentage point advantage.

These numbers are starkly different than the Albuquerque Journal poll released earlier this week, claiming Herrell was trailing Vasquez by two percentage points.

The poll surveyed 203 likely voters between October 25 and October 28 with a margin of error of 5.6 percent. 

The same Emmerson poll also found Republican Mark Ronchetti trailing Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by a mere three percentage points. 

However, when factoring in undecided voters and who they were leaning toward voting for at the time, Lujan Grisham got 50 percent support while Ronchetti garnered 48 percent — only a two-point lead.

The governor poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters during the same timeline. The margin of error was a smaller 3.02 percent, meaning the race is in a statistical tie. 

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson College’s poll an A-, meaning it is one of the best in the nation.


12 thoughts on “Poll: Herrell leads Vasquez, governor’s race a statistical tie”

  1. Good job!! Keep it up! We will work on getting “Hiney-lick” and little Benny-boy out of Congress next!!! As for the Governor’s chair –if Loserjan Gruesome stays in New Mexico will be in dire straights. Her blatant corruption is unreal!

      1. do not blame karen bedonie, the repubs should have backed her. it is the people of nm who are to blame for hundreds of years of an abusive co dependent culture and the politicians are a reflection of this sick society.

  2. Great news for New Mexico and America. Yvette Herrell’s America First policy is just what we need to fix New Mexico’s sad situation.

  3. Praying for COMMON SENSE conservative voting. What God gives is never taken away… what government gives can ALWAYS be snatched away.

  4. My opinion ALONE! For the Governor, MLG wins a “Close” one. The excuses will be: Ronchetti was just the Weather Guy. He has No Political experience. Bedonie got some votes that should have gone to him. I think the Democrats have donated to her for this reason. The Attorney General will be Raul Torrez. Secretary of State will be re-elected Maggie Toulouse Oliver. Auditor will be Joseph Maestas. ALL DEMOCRATS! All of our JUDGES will NOT get elected. The corruption must continue to be covered up and free to operate. Let’s not forget the State Treasurer, Laura Montoya will continue the Democrat money flow. I still believe there is election fraud and still alive and well in this state. From the bottom of my heart I certainly HOPE I am TOTALLY wrong on all of this. Where is the Republican Party?

  5. I read somewhere that Bedoni had dropped out saying she would cause Mark to lose votes if she stayed. Please clarify.

    I’d also like to know how much each party/candidate etc. spent on their campaign broken down to television, radio, social media, newspapers, fliers and mail etc.

  6. Bedonie should drop out, but she wants Mark Ronchetti to lose. She said so herself. Pathetic. And to think she presented herself as so conservative and moral initially. UGH I love this state, but I do not think I can stand this governor another 4 yrs. I wish she would move to California, so I don’t have to move.

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