New NM polling: Trump, Domenici within single digits of beating Dems
As the U.S. Presidential Election approaches, New Mexico is emerging as a critical battleground state, with new polling data shedding light on both the presidential and U.S. Senate races. Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in collaboration with The Telegraph, recently included New Mexico in its Swing State Tracker Poll, highlighting its growing significance in the national political landscape.
In the presidential race, the latest poll between July 31 and August 3 reveals that Kamala Harris holds a seven-point lead over 45th President Donald Trump in New Mexico, with Harris garnering 44% of the vote compared to Trump’s 37%. This lead suggests that New Mexico, which has traditionally leaned Democrat in recent elections, may be in contention in November. Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent candidate, polls at 8% in New Mexico, the highest support he has received among the swing states surveyed. If Kennedy dropped out and endorsed Trump, that would give Trump an even better advantage over Harris.
Beyond the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico is also drawing significant attention. Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is currently leading his Republican challenger, Nella Domenici, by six points, with Heinrich securing 40% of the vote to Domenici’s 34%. Heinrich’s support falls four points short of Harris’ performance in the state. Domenici, on the other hand, trails Trump by three points, indicating that while she benefits from the Republican base, she has not yet matched Trump’s level of support.
Economic concerns are at the forefront for New Mexico voters, with 55% reporting that their financial situation has worsened over the past year—the highest percentage among the swing states polled. This economic anxiety is likely to play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences in both the presidential and Senate races. Despite these challenges, a plurality of New Mexicans remains cautiously optimistic about the future, with 46% expecting their financial situation to improve in the coming year.
On key issues, New Mexico voters display a nuanced trust in the candidates. Kamala Harris is favored over Donald Trump on healthcare, the environment, and the war in Ukraine, while Trump is trusted more on economic issues, immigration, and national defense. In the Senate race, Domenici could gain traction on economic and immigration concerns.
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