Two candidates deadlocked in wild GOP lt. governor race

A new poll shows New Mexico’s Republican race for lieutenant governor is wide open — and with a stunning majority of voters still undecided, the contest could come down to who breaks through in the final stretch before primary day.

According to a new Albuquerque Journal poll, state Sen. David Gallegos and attorney Aubrey Blair Dunn are effectively tied in the GOP primary for lieutenant governor, with each earning roughly 20% support among likely Republican and participating independent primary voters. Meanwhile, candidate Manuel Lardizabal registered just 4%.

But the most eye-popping number in the survey may be this: 56% of voters remain undecided.

That means more than half of likely GOP primary voters have yet to make up their minds in the June 2 contest — a sign that the race remains completely fluid despite early positioning by the campaigns.

“Frankly, here we have a situation where I think most Republicans don’t even know who the candidates are,” pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling Inc. told the Albuquerque Journal.

The lieutenant governor race is the only statewide Republican primary contest this year outside of the gubernatorial race, but it has largely flown under the radar as candidates for governor dominate headlines and fundraising.

Under New Mexico law, lieutenant governor candidates run separately in the primary but are paired with the gubernatorial nominee for the general election — a structure that often leaves the down-ballot race overshadowed until late in the cycle.

Still, this year’s contest is shaping up to be more competitive than many expected.

Gallegos, who represents Eunice in the state Senate and previously served four terms in the House, entered the race with backing from much of the Republican establishment and won the most support at the GOP pre-primary convention in March.

But Dunn has positioned himself as an outsider willing to challenge party insiders. He recently joined litigation filed in Otero County alleging that Republican Party officials improperly meddled in contested primaries and seeking the removal of state GOP Chairwoman Amy Barela.

The poll suggests the race may be shaping along geographic and demographic lines.

According to the Journal’s reporting, Dunn performs better among Anglo voters and older Republicans, particularly seniors 65 and older, where he leads Gallegos 22% to 14%.

That advantage may stem in part from his family name. Dunn is the son of former Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr. and grandson of longtime state Sen. Aubrey Dunn Sr., giving him residual recognition among older Republican voters familiar with New Mexico political history.

Gallegos, meanwhile, reportedly performs better among Hispanic voters and holds an advantage in eastern New Mexico — his political home turf.

Regionally, Dunn leads by five points in the Albuquerque metro area, while Gallegos leads by five in eastern New Mexico, according to the Journal poll. Those regional divides could intensify as campaigns focus on turning out their geographic bases.

Another wildcard in the race is New Mexico’s new semi-open primary system.

This is the first major election cycle in which declined-to-state and independent voters may choose to vote in either party’s primary without changing party registration. The Journal found Gallegos currently leading among those independent voters planning to participate in the GOP primary.

But with such an overwhelming share of undecided voters, the effect of that new voting bloc remains uncertain.

In practical terms, the race is still anyone’s to win.

With no candidate above 20%, minimal statewide name recognition, and more than half the electorate undecided, the lieutenant governor primary may become one of the most volatile and unpredictable Republican contests on the ballot.

The numbers suggest one thing clearly: while insiders may have favorites, Republican voters have not yet settled on one.

And with early voting underway soon, whoever defines himself fastest in the coming weeks may seize the nomination.

Polling cited from the Albuquerque Journal / Research & Polling Inc. survey conducted April 24–May 1 among 528 likely GOP and participating independent primary voters, margin of error ±4.3 percentage points.