Data analysis appears to show abnormalities in NM election results

According to data analysis done by data researchers Jeff O’Donnell and Draza Smith, there appear to be many abnormal occurrences in the 2022 midterm elections in New Mexico.

Data published by O’Donnell and Smith shows the first ballot dump in New Mexico’s governor’s race gave incumbent Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham 80.3 percent (42,922 ballots), while Republican Mark Ronchetti only got 19.5 percent (10,538 ballots), which is apparently statistically impossible.

It is unclear where these first ballots flooded in from, but even in the state’s most far-left county, Santa Fe County, there were only 69,449 ballots cast, meaning the first dump would have been over 61.8 percent of the county’s total votes cast — an unlikely scenario. The county’s final results were 75.3 percent for Grisham to 23.4 percent for Ronchetti. 

Another dump later left the total number of ballots for Lujan Grisham at 184,382 votes to Ronchetti’s 58,329 votes, leaving him with only 24 percent of the vote to Lujan Grisham’s 76 percent margin. This disparity is not normal, especially since only Santa Fe County had anywhere near a similar percentage of ballots cast, while its population could not have mathematically given such a margin to the Democrat governor.

This same pattern appears to algorithmically go up at nearly the same percentage for Lujan Grisham throughout the night, giving the Democrat an extreme advantage in the number of ballots tabulated from the start. No such ballot increase for Ronchetti appears to have happened throughout the night despite many Republican-heavy counties overwhelmingly rejecting Lujan Grish, such as Chaves County, where Lujan Grisham only got 24.9 percent of the vote to Ronchetti’s 72.8 percent. 

This same pattern could be found in the secretary of state election, where Democrat incumbent Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who oversaw her own election, started out with 68.2 percent (49,794 ballots) of the vote to Republican Audrey Trujillo’s 31.8 percent (23,185 ballots). 

There was also a discrepancy of around 7,000 votes between the gubernatorial race and the secretary of state race, which also creates new questions about what happened with these ballot dumps and where did these ballots come from. 

A later ballot dump in that race had Toulouse Oliver with 67.1 percent of the vote to Trujillo’s 38.2 percent, another statistical abnormality. It is also unlikely these came from such a heavily Democrat district as Santa Fe due to the margin and vote numbers. It showed Toulouse Oliver with 191,360 ballots to Trujillo’s 60,689. 

Similar apparent algorithmic disparities happened in the state attorney general race, with Democrat Raúl Torrez garnering 67.3 percent (49,917 ballots) of the initial ballot dump, while Republican Jeremy Gay got 32.7 percent (24,284 ballots). Later ballot dumps followed the same pattern in both the secretary of state and governor’s races. 

Another key piece of evidence also shows that the initial ballot dump happened statewide and was not isolated in extremely Democrat-dominated places is the results from the Second Congressional District, which does not encompass Santa Fe.

Republican Congresswoman Yvette Herrell, who was projected at the end of the night to lose by around 1,000 votes, initially started out with only 20.7 percent (1,321 votes) of the first round of ballots to her Democrat opponent Gabe Vasquez’s 79.3 percent (5,071 votes).

A similar pattern carried over to the First and Second Congressional Districts. However, it appeared the algorithm was flipped in the First District, where Democrat Melanie Stansbury started off with far fewer votes counted, with it later correcting to show Stansbury with a 62.3 percent lead to her Republican opponent Michelle Garcia Holmes, who had 37.7 percent.

In the Third Congressional District, the initial margins were even more extreme, with Democrat Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez getting an initial 84.9 percent of the vote (37,622 ballots) to Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson’s 15.1 percent (6,671 ballots).

It is unclear what justification the secretary of state or other elections officials have for these statistical abnormalities, but they appear to indicate possible tampering with New Mexico’s electoral system. 

See the full data analysis by O’Donnell and Smith here.


67 thoughts on “Data analysis appears to show abnormalities in NM election results”

  1. ‘…appears to show abnormalities…’
    ‘…they appear to indicate possible tampering…’
    Was there ever any doubt? Sometimes it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry.

  2. Now that the “election” aka Appointment of Rulers via cheating/fraud/and lies is over, I will live the best life that I can, speak out and fight where I can, and continue to wait for the return of our Savior, Jesus Christ. No human being can “fix” the corruption which is now on a global scale. May God help us as we navigate the “fundamental change” wrought by the blind and power-obsessed who seek to destroy liberty and truth.

    1. The narrative remains to not fight back or propose violations, or censuring and “fact checking” will result. I believe “you’ve got to stand for something or you’ll fall for anything”. When everyone believes a lie, they will choose not to listen to the truth. Only in God’s time will we have justice and right.

    2. Amen… I heard that Biden and MLG consider themselves Catholic….If you support the taking of life aka abortion.. You are not a Catholic. God and Lord Jesus Christ are the ultimate rulers not some far left Presidents, Governors, and anybody with a political position that supports abortion…hopefully when the time comes they will be judged according to the law of God..

      1. Yes, Gabriel. do people realize that if you vote for a pro choice candidate, that is a mortal sin if you are catholic, and its still a mortal sin if you are not.
        Ronchetti was paid to create the illusion of an election so the uni party could continue to destroy our republic. they did this in other states too. Bedonie was NOT the spoiler, she would have restored constitutional, limited government, as would have Joshua James. The repub party is a joke and are just as guilty as the dims. they were told to use the 14th amendment to remove gov gruesome and others from office for violations of her oath, instead they allowed couy griffin to be removed from office under fraudulent charges.

    3. Past generations have fixed it. Won’t this defeatism mean that God is coming for you in judgement then? Maybe we cannot fix it within the confines of American government. I agree, we need to rely on God but not like in James 2. Are you content to look your child in the eye and say what you said? Are you content with handing this hell off to your kids?

      Matthew 25:24-30 “And the one also who had received the one talent came up and said, ‘Master, I knew you to be a hard man, reaping where you did not sow and gathering where you scattered no seed. 25 ‘And I was afraid, and went away and hid your talent in the ground. See, you have what is yours.’ 26 “But his master answered and said to him, ‘You wicked, lazy slave, you knew that I reap where I did not sow and gather where I scattered no seed. 27 ‘Then you ought to have put my money in the bank, and on my arrival I would have received my money back with interest. 28 ‘Therefore take away the talent from him, and give it to the one who has the ten talents.’ 29 “For to everyone who has, more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but from the one who does not have, even what he does have shall be taken away. 30 “Throw out the worthless slave into the outer darkness; in that place there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

      Isaiah 5:18-19 Woe to those who drag iniquity with the cords of falsehood, And sin as if with cart ropes; 19 Who say, “Let Him make speed, let Him hasten His work, that we may see it; And let the purpose of the Holy One of Israel draw near And come to pass, that we may know it!”

      Something to think seriously about.

    4. Amen! Couldnt have said it any better. God is our only hope right now! Faith is our only defense. And there is power in prayer!

  3. Is this possible? A Republican party rep said this regarding the article.

    Data analysis appears to show abnormalities in NM election results…
    ” Or does it indicate the times of batch uploads of absentee ballots?”

  4. Maggie Tolouse Oliver, “who oversaw her own election,” I call for you and all electors who are in positions resulting from the October 8, 2022 election, to recuse yourselves from certifying said election. The is a clear and transparent conflict of interest.

    1. Same thing happened in Arizona they’ll never do that they’re too corrupt. You’re in New Mexico. How can the evil queen of the north get reelected when she is destroyed our state? That boggles my mind unless there’s people who just like to be oppressed. So sad.

  5. You IDIOTIC people responding to this garbage article need to finish mid school. The moron Maga who is doing this analysis is intentionally misleading you with faulty information and garbage statistics. Hid pathetic website is entirely down right (of course) so I can’t show how he’s manipulated the data he’s importing into his tables. It was clear earlier, perhaps he’s trying to hide it now? DONT BE STUPID!! If you don’t understand data analysis, sql programming, and proper linking, formatting, and reading of data…don’t give your stupid opinion!

    1. Who are you to be using the words Idiotic, moron, stupid and telling anyone not to post an opinion?
      Constitutionally, we the people of New Mexico, living in the U.S. have every right to know the truth and it should be looked into, I hope they do!!

      1. Deliberately falsifying data IS NOT AN OPINION!! How on earth would you not understand that??? There are several replies on this lie of an article stating this and it is ridiculous.

        1. JB, you have every right to disagree with the statements of others. However, you make many assertions without benefit of ANY factual support. If you have information which indicates that someone else’s analysis is wrong, you have a responsibility to provide that evidence (e.g. links to news stories and/or supporting data). You may think that others are “idiots”, but you’re no better than them without support for your claims. Without it, you’re just engaging in name-calling. By the way, I’m a multiply published Ph.D. scientist; I do understand “data analysis, sql programming, and proper linking, formatting, and reading of data”, as I have done them all MANY times.

      1. Sigh…so so so dumb!!!! What do initials or names have to do with anything? HOW ON EARTH would thar be hiding? I’m addressing the blatant altering of data, data tables, and math, to make a false claim. I’m not happy when ANYONE does this, I don’t care what your name is, your politics are, or who your God is…we have enough lies out there based on opinion. When you literally lie about something that is easy to verify as false…that should not happen! Your stupid point is irrelevant.

    2. Spoken like a true democrat… rude and always right..someone who trolls Republican friendly sites … you clearly aren’t religious and one sided views..

      1. Dear GM, I’m not a Democrat…I don’t affiliate with ANY party. Why is it rude that I’m angry at people deliberately lying with the sole purpose of continuing to hurt other people? I see all these comments people make without even understanding the very basics, people must do better!!

        I have no idea what you mean “you clearly aren’t religious” what does that have to do with anything? Also, what does “and one sided views” mean IN ANY CONTEXT??? That is baffling and nonsensical. These writer used analysis that is observably incorrect. This isn’t an opinion. It is verifiable that they have mangled the data from the drops. Pull up the website linked (if it’s online). If you know how, you can actually access all the data he is using and even see how he’s pulled it into his website. You can compare the nonsense he is using and claiming is real voter dumps to the actual voter dumps. He is just making things up! It’s easy to see.

        1. How do you know he made things up! So you are the truth? Please explain yourself. Try to do so without name calling degrading and fit throwing. I bet this will be very difficult for you….if so the next time you name call and try to degrade LOOK IN THE MIRROR!

    3. Explain how most of NM has turned republican and only a few Northern county’s are Democrat but yet A democratic Party won governor ?? I knew there had to be cheating go on again. Now what are the people going to do about this ?!

      1. Where is the data to support the assertion that New Mexico is now a republican state. The northern part of the state and the major population centers, Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe tend to vote Democrat. The democrats pretty well sweep the national and state elections.

    4. jb joe biden is that you? don’t you need a diaper change? who let you out of the basement? there you go again, speaking nonsense…

  6. Apparently only the Democrats got their vote counted and some. Republicans votes they probably threw them in the trash. Some thing not right, those rascals the Democrats always come out smelling like roses at the end, time to stop the corruptions in our U.S.A.

    1. So true, until the system changes there will be no free and fair elections. Races always go to the highest bidder. No surprise, NM ranks lowest on every chart.

  7. Stop it. Seriously. All of you election deniers need to take your conspiracies and go home. I don’t know why it is beyond your realm of possibility that people…even registered Republicans like me…might be voting against your candidates.

  8. Funny how the Dem’s always bash other running mates from the other side…. but the Elections happen, the Dem’s have always come out ahead. NM uses Dominion Voting Machines, they won’t admit but they do use those Rotten, cheating, scamming, erasers to steal/fraud any Election. It’s time to put a stop to the corrupt Election crooks that steal votes and trash Ballots they don’t want COUNTED…! Where the hell is the AG….?

    1. Totally agree, the AG is probably hiding under his desk because he knows all these cheaters are going to be arrested, why else would the military be tracking the voting data? America deserves clean and fair elections.. including NM. Crimes against humanity will be prosecuted, it’s only a matter of time.

    2. “NM uses Dominion Voting Machines, they won’t admit but they do use those Rotten, cheating, scamming, erasers to steal/fraud any Election.”

      Sir, here’s one place where they “admit” they use Dominion Machines; follow this link.

      What kind of ballots and voting systems are used in New Mexico?
      • New Mexico uses paper ballots that are scanned on an optical scan tabulating system.This system is used for early voting, absentee voting and Election Day at each polling location. New Mexico’s voting equipment is uniform state-wide: Dominion Voting Systems Imagecast Evolution and Imagecast Precinct with ballot marking device (ADA Compliant).

      Keep in mind that you can become a poll worker – then you’ll know at least one honest person was involved in the election right?

      How to become a Poll worker.


      1. Not anyone can be a poll worker. In Dona Ana county, if you aren’t vaccinated for COVID you can’t work the polls. I know. I wanted to work the polls, but refused to get vaccinated for health and religious reasons. I didn’t see a single Republican working the polls, because the Deomocraps kept us out.

  9. Why can’t Republicans just except the fact they lost instead of this Trump mentality of we didn’t win so therfore they cheated 🤔 🤔

    1. Just like in 2016 when Hilary didn’t win, everyone was fine with that huh.. 😆 you will see the truth come to light.. don’t be surprised when NM is shown to be more red than blue.

  10. I’m thinking you should take your own advice, “don’t give your stupid opinion.” You might be able to fool some of the people some of the time, but you will never fool all of the people all of the time. We know the elections are not “of the people, by the people” thank goodness the military has the evidence and justice will prevail, just wait and see.

  11. Why don’t you consult some REAL data analysts, instead or axe-grinding hacks like O’Donnell and Smith? All of the things that they call anomalies are really quite normal and logical if your compare the results data with the registration data.

    1. ewww the smelly shills are out, how much you all getting paid to destroy our republic? you are sell outs for cheap, nothing but hoes. it appears a nerve has been touched, and we know the godless shills and useful idiots hate the truth.if the repubs had decent candidates, they would have won by a landslide, as it is now, the fraud is believable to some because they are so lame..

  12. Same as 2018 in CD2. Herrell lost at midnight when 8000 ballots were found in a trunk. Nothing done about it. What is wrong with our state party? Afraid of being called racist or deniers? Sad sad sad

  13. You know as well as I do the election was NOT up and up!! Once corruption and deceit gets hold removal is a long hard battle!! We all know corruption has run deep in New Mexico politics for many,many years.. I’m praying the truth comes out and Loserjan and her cohorts are arrested and jailed!

    1. Thomas, it is the people who must do something, and its not thru voting. it is about educating themselves and then taking lawful action and get behind the sheriffs to arrest and remove these traitors. unless we get rid of the 10 planks of the communist manifesto, nothing will change. There is only one law and that is the supreme law of the land, our founding documents. stop looking to servants to rule over you. the people are the masters of our republic, these people work for you, so start acting like it.

  14. These elections remind me of cards. I used to play with a machinist for fun. He would occasionally pretend to hold out certain valuable cards. His comment was “the more I cheat, the more I win.” That about sums it up for me. Power, sex, and money contribute to the corruption we currently see. What a waste of our time and our money (though taxes) for these very sick people that are supposed to govern for us.

  15. Not surprised they cheated. Nothing will be done as the RINO republican party of New Mexico will just sit back and ignore the corruption that never ends in this state.

  16. I’m curious, Who are the actual people who count the votes?
    Who assigns these people?
    Shouldn’t there be people from both parties in every room that handles the vote count?
    Shouldn’t both parties be watching for irregularities and verifying an honest election?
    Both parties, equal participation, no chance for cheating? If not done this way, then it just means you plan to cheat.

    1. I believe you can find the answer to most of your questions on the Sec. of States Webpage. Here are several links that clearly address some of your concerns.
      If you have more issues, you can volunteer to be a poll worker in the future or you can call the Office of the SOS and ask … today.

      Maggie Toulouse Oliver
      New Mexico Secretary of State
      Phone Number: 1-800-477-3632
      Receptionist: 505-827-3600 (Option 3)

      How to spot the misleading voter fraud BS.

      How we audit the results:

      Voters rights:

      How to become an election place challenger or watcher

      How to become a Poll worker.

      Information is available to you but … you have to look for it.



  17. First of all , there’s no such thing in America anymore as democrat or republican, there’s only communists or patriots. The commies are in control of the state and country and therefore the mechanism to impose voter fraud to ensure they stay in power. The “republicans “ are there as gatekeepers for the communists ensuring that constitutional candidates don’t get past the primary and if somehow elected to make sure they serve only one term. We , the American people are being played by these deceitful traitors to our republic. Three things scare the “uniparty” ; paper ballots, constitutional patriots, and term limits which every communist,rino or otherwise vehemently oppose. Career politicians and career bureaucrats should not exist in a sane republic. Just look at what the cost has been to America. God Bless

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