A new poll suggests former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who is endorsed by New Mexico State University College Republicans, currently holds the edge in New Mexico’s Republican gubernatorial primary, but with a massive share of voters still undecided, the race remains far from settled just weeks before ballots are cast.
According to a new poll conducted by Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, Hull leads the Republican field with 30% support among likely GOP and participating independent primary voters. Small businessman Doug Turner follows with 21%, while former Cabinet secretary and businessman Duke Rodriguez trails at 9%. A striking 40% of respondents remain undecided, underscoring how fluid the race still is heading into early voting.
“Republican voters are still getting to know their three candidates for governor, so the race is up for grabs,” pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Albuquerque Journal.
The numbers suggest that while Hull has built an early advantage, no candidate has yet consolidated the Republican electorate in the open-seat contest to replace term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
One likely factor is name recognition. As the Journal noted, none of the three Republican contenders has previously held statewide or federal elected office, leaving many voters still unfamiliar with the field. Hull’s current lead may be aided by his 12-year tenure as mayor of Rio Rancho, the state’s third-largest city, giving him stronger visibility in the Albuquerque metro area and north-central New Mexico.
That regional strength appears to be fueling his advantage. The poll found Hull holds a commanding lead in both the Albuquerque metro and north-central parts of the state.
However, the race is far more competitive elsewhere.
Turner, who is endorsed by former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell, outperformed Hull in eastern New Mexico, traditionally one of the state’s most conservative regions, where 27% of voters surveyed backed Turner compared to 19% for Hull, according to the Journal. In southern and southwestern New Mexico, meanwhile, more than half of voters remain undecided, suggesting that region could become a decisive late battleground.
Rodriguez, who has the endorsement of former Gov. Gary Johnson, while trailing overall, showed stronger support among independent voters participating in the GOP primary under New Mexico’s new semi-open primary system. The Journal reported that 14% of independent voters surveyed backed Rodriguez, higher than his showing among registered Republicans.
A political action committee called Protect Our NM has been casting doubt on Rodriguez’s eligibility for the ballot via mailers, writing, “If Duke Rodriguez becomes the Republican nominee, Democrats could file to remove him from the ballot—potentially clearing the way for their far-left candidate to become governor with no Republican opposition.” It is unclear who is funding the the PAC, overseen by prominent political consultant Chris Cupit, but it will become evident when the next campaign filings are due in mid-May.
This comes as allies of Rodriguez’s campaign have been attacking Turner for alleged COVID-19-era contracts, which they are claiming are tied to Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Those claims, however, have not yet been substantiated with facts.
This year marks the first primary election under New Mexico’s semi-open primary law, which allows declined-to-state voters to choose a Republican or Democratic ballot without changing party registration. The impact of those voters remains uncertain, but their participation adds a new variable to the race.
The poll also highlights the fundraising disadvantage Republicans face heading into the general election. According to the Journal, the three Republican candidates combined had raised only about $1.5 million as of last month, compared to nearly $11 million raised by Democratic frontrunner Deb Haaland.
Still, the GOP primary itself remains highly competitive.
Unlike bruising primaries seen in other states, the three Republican candidates have largely avoided attacking one another so far, instead focusing their fire on Democrats and outlining similar conservative policy priorities. They largely agreed during this week’s KOAT gubernatorial debate, with one notable disagreement over the future of the state fairgrounds.
With early voting beginning Tuesday and four in ten Republican voters still undecided, the next several weeks could prove decisive.
Hull may currently lead, but the latest polling suggests New Mexico Republicans have not yet made up their minds — and the GOP nomination remains very much in play.
I’m for Duke so far. I just have to research for the candidate who is also willing to STOP selling our state out to the money devouring and environmentally destructive massive solar panels, windmills, and AI data centers that keep cropping up in our state.
I’m for for Hull. I’m not interested in a legal pot dealer from Arizona. Hull made Rio Rancho the safest and best city to live in NM. He was also fiscally responsible in his tenure as Mayor. Tons of people are moving to Rio Rancho from out of state, hummmm, I wonder why. Could it be it’s been ran by a fiscally responsible Republican for the last twelve years?!!! Let’s hope the new residents moving to RR are not escaping Blue cities they voted for and are coming here to make it a poorly run Dem city. As for people blaming Hull for all the Democrats moving to RR, please explain how he is responsible for that? What he is responsible for is drawing people to an outstanding place to live. RR is safe, calm, and affordable! Thank you Mayor Hull!!
I, too, am for Hull. He has a proven of a successful record in Rio Rancho. Turner claims to own a business but does not specify what the business is in his ads. He talks a good talk but it’s the same way most politicians talk to win votes and never follow up when elected. Rodriguez is questionable. He has some good ideas but could he be removed by the democrooks.
Hull will get my vote. Rodriguez is too willing to throw the free childcare program under the bus over a technicality. That program is the best chance our state has to improve things here.
whoever wins the primary get out and vote repubs. we cannot take another 4 years of dem o dipshit “leadership” in this state. The dems outdid themselves and dredged up the worst candidate (deb) of all time. of course the zombies will vote for her. they have empty heads.