New Mexico now officially a toss-up as Trump closes in

With fewer than 20 days remaining until the U.S. presidential election, New Mexico has emerged as a pivotal swing state, putting 45th President Donald Trump in a strong position to challenge the Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris. New polling from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, commissioned by The Telegraph, shows that the state is now up for grabs, making New Mexico a battleground that could be decisive in this highly contested race. Trump trails Harris by the narrowest margin — just 4%.

The poll, part of a broader survey of key swing states, finds that Harris and Trump are locked in a tight contest across several battlegrounds. In New Mexico, which Joe Biden carried by nearly 100,000 votes in 2020, Trump’s support has surged. According to the poll, both candidates are within the margin of error, highlighting how quickly the political landscape in the state has shifted. Trump’s favorability has grown, with many former Biden voters reconsidering their support and indicating they now plan to vote for Trump in November.

A key factor driving this shift is the economy, which has become the most important issue for voters in New Mexico. The poll reveals that between 57% and 72% of voters in swing states, including New Mexico, cite the cost of living as “extremely important” in determining their vote. Trump’s message of economic recovery and his focus on tackling inflation appears to be resonating with New Mexicans who are feeling the pressure of rising costs. Additionally, immigration ranks as a major issue in the state, with voters leaning toward Trump’s tougher border policies.

What makes New Mexico such an unpredictable factor in this election is the growing number of 2020 Biden voters who are now shifting to Trump. In the Redfield and Wilton poll, between 9% and 18% of voters who backed Biden in 2020 say they will vote for Trump this year, while only a smaller fraction of Trump’s previous supporters have moved toward Harris. This trend is alarming for Democrats who once saw New Mexico as a secure state.

Additionally, Harris has struggled to maintain the same levels of support that Biden received in 2020. According to the poll, Harris’s favorability ratings are not as strong as Trump’s in the state, and this is particularly troubling for Democrats who need a solid turnout to hold on to the state’s five electoral votes. Trump’s ability to appeal to undecided voters and win back disillusioned Democrats is making the race even tighter.

The poll also highlights how Trump’s broader base of loyal supporters is a significant advantage. Between 85% and 92% of voters who backed Trump in 2020 remain steadfast in their support, compared to a smaller share of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris. This loyalty gives Trump an edge, particularly in states like New Mexico where the margins are slim.

With New Mexico now on the radar as a swing state, both campaigns are expected to ramp up efforts in the coming days. The state’s unique mix of economic, immigration, and social concerns make it a critical battleground that could play a decisive role in the overall outcome of the election. For Trump, flipping New Mexico would represent a major victory in his path to reclaiming the presidency. For Harris, it’s a race to maintain ground in a state that once seemed secure but is now firmly in play.

Republicans hope to flip one or two of New Mexico’s U.S. House seats in November and a U.S. Senate seat, with embattled incumbent Martin Heinrich fighting for his political life following a devastating television debate against prominent Republican Nella Domenici.