A pair of newly released polls is offering an early snapshot of New Mexico’s 2026 gubernatorial race—showing a clearer picture on the Democratic side, while highlighting just how unsettled the Republican primary remains.
On the Democratic side, former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland holds a significant early lead, according to a recent Emerson College Polling survey conducted in partnership with KRQE News 13.
The poll found that Haaland is backed by 40% of likely Democratic primary voters, giving her a double-digit advantage over Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, who came in at 24%. Notably, a sizable 36% of voters remain undecided—suggesting the race could still shift as the campaign develops.
According to the poll analysis, Haaland’s lead is driven in part by strong support among key demographic groups. “Haaland’s lead was driven by a 24-point advantage over Bregman among women, and a 30-point advantage among voters with college degrees,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, as reported by The Hill. Meanwhile, men favored Haaland by a narrower margin, and voters without college degrees were roughly split.
Haaland has also consolidated establishment Democratic support early, with endorsements from all three members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation as well as Sen. Ben Ray Luján—a signal that party leaders may be aiming to avoid a contentious primary.
While Democrats appear to have a frontrunner, the Republican side tells a very different story.
The same Emerson/KRQE poll shows a wide-open GOP primary, with 61% of likely Republican voters still undecided. Among those who have made a choice, Rio Rancho Mayor Greggory Hull leads with 21%, but no candidate has broken through in a significant way.
That lack of consolidation is echoed—and further developed—in separate polling released by Republican candidate Doug Turner.
According to Turner’s campaign, an internal poll conducted by TrueDot found 64% of likely GOP primary voters initially undecided, with no candidate topping 20%. However, the campaign argues that once voters are introduced to Turner’s background and policy platform, the race shifts dramatically.
In that “informed ballot” scenario, Turner leads with 41%, compared to Hull at 17% and Duke Rodriguez at 7%, according to the campaign’s release.
“This polling confirms exactly what we’re seeing on the campaign trail every day,” Turner said in a statement. “Conservatives are uniting around our message of cutting taxes, fixing education, and locking up repeat offenders—it’s clear that voters are ready for a common sense businessman to shake things up and turn New Mexico around!”
The dueling polls underscore a key dynamic taking shape in the race: while Democrats appear to be coalescing early around a leading candidate, Republicans are still in the process of defining their field.
The Emerson/KRQE poll was conducted April 18–19 among 1,000 likely primary voters, while Turner’s campaign cited a separate survey of 541 likely GOP voters conducted April 10–15.
Taken together, the results suggest that while Haaland may have early momentum on the Democratic side, the Republican primary remains fluid—with a large share of voters still up for grabs and multiple candidates jockeying to emerge as the party’s standard-bearer.
Well, I am an undecided voter. Have heard Hull speak. Hopefully will hear Turner next month. Rodriguez didn’t show at the meeting set for him here. But, why, just why does anyone want Deb??? Beyond me!
The more I listen to Doug Turner, the more I like what he has to say. I’m a huge Greg Hull fan but I think Doug has more broad level of experience. Haaland supporters boggle my mind!
Doug Turner is more knowledge, has the intelligence to implement his ideas, and can raise the money to compete with the Democratic Machine.
Im not buying turner at 41 percent. no one even knows who he is. as for the dems, how can they be so stupid to have haaland out front. 70 percent of her donations from out of state.
Do not believe in polls. They call certain numbers. I have done this before.
As Interior Sec she stumbled over questions from Congress and evaded answers, As Rep she just blames Trump, her ads she makes claims and takes credit for what others have done. She seems ill at ease at any live speaking. Frankly I wouldn’t hire her as a Wal Mart greeter. NOT QUALIFIED comes to mind
I like your comments, Don.
Me, too.
any of the three repubs are 1 trillion times better than the dems who campaign on hating trump , ice, law and order, and in a camouflaged way, white people . i heard bregmans and haalands ads. they are going to fix everything they say. high paying jobs, affordability. HOW ? they couldnt tell you how if their life depended on it. their campaigns are empty stupid words
‘voters with college degrees’ – Oh My…the group of ignorant LibTards, who sit around and boast of their standing with MLG and suffer from Hussein Nostalgia.
I will wait for the debates, as I know nothing of our candidates. Thank You.
Deb Haaland refuses to debate, so Democrats will not have a primary debate. This resembles when Harris was selected without broad input. Democrats present themselves as strong communicators but avoid open debate.
Don you are correct. I believe haaland was a DEI hire and it showed, but we have to have a token NA to make our country great. I am sure there are many NA that can run circles around her. But if she wins NM will continue to fight to be the worst state in the US. There is Gene Pettit, a nondenominational that should be running. I have met and he seems close to my conservative Christin values and he wants to fix our school systems. But if he does not get a bigger following he could take votes away from less qualified republicans and give the win to the idiot Haaland
Haaland refuses to debate bregman. because she cant think clearly enough to debate. yet the dems cheer her on. what morons.
They cheer her on because she is stupid and unable to do anything on her own which makes her an easily manipulated tool aka fool who follows onancrders.
…who only follows orders. Sorry.
I would like to know where these polls are set to take place and who they are polling. I’ve e been a registered voter for just shy of 50 years and have never been polled even once so I feel as if these Pollers pick only people they are sure will give the responses they want. Brain washed college students are a great place to start if you want a lib/dem bias. Like Hillary, there is no way in hades would I vote for Haaland, not because she is a female or her ancestry, just based on her history and lack of accomplishment. I currently like the underdog, Duke Rodriguez, I have heard him speak and he has good ideas and a plan of action. I am still trying to learn about the other two and would like to see them debate.
I am somewhat relieved to know that our Republican gubernatorial candidates Hull and Turner are qualified. I am eager to see them on the debate stage.
Bregman and Haaland will only help set the stage for dumber and dumbest, hopefully this will enlighten the voters on election integrity.
Candidate Haaland would only be figure head as Maggie Toulouse-Oliver would really be running the show. The comments above are all correct but the intent on D side is the “show-biz appeal” of this candidate. Look behind the curtain.
Deb Haaland is out front in these polls because Dems will vote for whoever the party tells them to vote for. She checks the DEI boxes by being female and Native American. They don’t care if she refuses to debate Bregman and doesn’t have an active brain cell. They will look no further. Many Dem voters are dependent on govt. programs and just want their free healthcare, snap benefits, phones, etc. The rest of the Dems believe their party ‘helps’ the poor and destitute and that abortion is a ‘right’ and will vote accordingly.
NOthing will change in NM unless the voter rolls get cleaned up and Secy of State is held to account. Only then, we may have a chance at a Repub Governor again. Any of them will be a breath of fresh air.
If we can accomplish that, then our new governor needs a new Repub led legislature.
I’m voting Gregg Hull, hands down!!
HAALAND AND ALL DEMOCRATS ARE RETARTED THEY ARE DUMB AS A BAG OF HAMMERS
Hey now, hammers are useful…😂
Loved your comment.
We definitely need a change. But not Deb Haaland
Also, we cannot sit back and hope that our state will change. It takes action and I know I’m talking to myself too. It’s hard to get out. Where do you start? How can I help? Volunteer at the evidence, offices, phone calls, Saenz door hangers door knockers.
We should all get behind Hull .