NY Times: Biden in peril as NM, other Dem strongholds become tossups

As Joe Biden remains committed to running as the Democrat presidential presumptive nominee, Democrats are increasingly worried that his candidacy is transforming the political landscape, turning states like New Mexico into competitive battlegrounds.

Local officials, down-ballot Democrats, and party strategists have voiced concerns that states Biden won easily in 2020—such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia—could now be up for grabs. Recent polls indicate a tightening race between Biden and 45th President Donald Trump in these areas. In Virginia, which has not voted for a Republican president since 2004, one poll shows a virtual tie, while another has Trump narrowly leading in New Hampshire.

The Cook Political Report recently adjusted its ratings, downgrading New Hampshire and Minnesota from “likely” Biden wins to “leaning” in his direction. At a White House meeting, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham expressed her concern to Biden, fearing he could lose her state, according to the New York Times.

This instability in traditionally safe Democrat states poses a significant challenge for Biden’s campaign, especially in must-win states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. An expanding battleground map could force his campaign to divert resources from these critical states.

Despite these worries, Biden remains resolute, declaring at a recent press conference, “I’m determined I’m running,” and downplaying his poor polling numbers.

David Axelrod, the strategist behind Barack Obama’s presidential victories, acknowledged the potential threat, stating, “I don’t think it’s fool’s gold. I think it’s something that has to be taken seriously.” Minnesota Governor Tim Walz also noted that his state is “in play” this year and more competitive than in 2020.

Trump’s campaign has been relatively light on the ground so far, limiting his ability to capitalize on these opportunities. However, a memo reported by CBS News indicated that the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee plan to open offices in Minnesota and Virginia. Anna Kelly, a spokeswoman for the RNC, remarked, “President Trump is appealing to voters across the political spectrum, including in so-called blue states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and New Jersey, with his agenda to lower costs, secure the border, and restore peace through strength.”

Biden’s campaign has dismissed Trump’s efforts to expand the map, highlighting Trump’s lack of infrastructure and advertising in these states. Dan Kanninen, Biden’s battleground state director, emphasized their advantage, stating, “This election will be decided by a subset of voters in a narrow set of battlegrounds, but only the Biden-Harris campaign is investing to reach and persuade those voters.”

In New Mexico, Democrats hold the entire congressional delegation, the governor’s mansion, and the State Legislature. However, concerns about Biden’s performance persist. Brad Elkins, the campaign manager for New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich, commented, “Biden can win New Mexico, but all of the data I’m seeing shows that his campaign needs to make their case to New Mexicans to ensure that happens.”

Interviews with Democrat and independent voters in Albuquerque reveal a lack of enthusiasm for Biden. Some voters expressed a desire for a change at the top of the Democratic ticket or indicated they might vote for a third-party candidate or abstain from voting in November. Patricia Benavidez, a Democrat who voted for Biden in 2020, stated she is now leaning toward Trump, citing concerns about Biden’s capabilities after the recent debate.

In Virginia, Democrats regained control of the General Assembly last year, signaling a resurgence after a Republican victory in the governor’s race in 2022. However, Biden’s allies remain cautious. Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney remarked, “As much as we want this to be a blue state, this is a deep purple state, and you have to give it some attention. You can’t take it for granted.”

Concerns even extend to Democrat strongholds like New York, where a poll found Biden up by only single digits before the debate. Similarly, a recent survey in Oregon showed Biden with just a single-digit lead over Trump, indicating a closer race than expected.