New poll shows Cunningham surging as Vasquez slips in NM-02

A newly released internal poll is shaking up the political landscape in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, showing Republican challenger Greg Cunningham rapidly closing the gap — and in some metrics, already matching incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez.

The survey, conducted April 26–28 among 879 likely general election voters, reveals a district far more competitive than Democrats have publicly suggested. According to the data, the generic congressional ballot is tied at 45%–45%, signaling a dead-even partisan environment heading into the 2026 cycle.

More notably, Cunningham trails Vasquez by just two points — 43% to 41% — a margin well within the poll’s 3.29% margin of error. That effectively places the race in toss-up territory, despite Cunningham having spent relatively little compared to the incumbent.

Even more striking is the vulnerability of Vasquez himself.

The poll shows Vasquez with a negative approval rating overall, with just 34% of voters viewing him favorably compared to 42% who view him unfavorably — a net -8% image. His standing is even weaker among key voting blocs, including independents, where he is underwater by 16 points, and Hispanic voters, where he posts a -6% rating.

Those numbers suggest deep structural problems for the incumbent heading into a high-turnout election year.

At the same time, Cunningham appears to be gaining traction with exactly the voters Republicans need to win the district. According to the poll, he is already securing nearly 40% support among Hispanic voters and performing strongly among high-propensity voters — those most likely to actually cast ballots.

Perhaps the most important takeaway, however, is Cunningham’s room to grow.

A full 37% of voters surveyed said they had not yet heard of Cunningham, while another 31% said they were unsure about him. Despite that lack of name recognition, he is already statistically tied with a sitting congressman.

That dynamic points to significant upside for the Republican challenger as the race develops and more voters become familiar with his background as a Marine and former Albuquerque police officer.

The broader political environment in NM-02 also appears to be shifting.

The poll found that 51% of voters in the district would prefer a candidate who supports President Donald Trump’s agenda over one aligned with former President Joe Biden — a notable indicator of where voter sentiment is trending.

Meanwhile, the Democrat brand itself is struggling. The survey shows Democrats underwater by 18 points in the district, while Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham carries a -14% approval rating, further dragging down the party’s standing.

Taken together, the numbers paint a clear picture: NM-02 is no longer a safe seat for Democrats.

Republican strategists argue the race is poised to flip as voters turn against what they describe as Vasquez’s far-left agenda.

“Extreme Democrat Gabe Vasquez’s high-tax, anti-police, pro-open border agenda is completely out of line with New Mexicans,” said NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson. “This fall, voters will boot Vasquez out of office and elect Marine and former Albuquerque Police Officer Greg Cunningham to fight for them.”

With Cunningham already within striking distance — and a large share of voters still forming opinions — the race in southern New Mexico is shaping up to be one of the most competitive congressional contests in the country.

And if these trends hold, it could soon become one of the biggest Republican pickup opportunities of the 2026 cycle.