A newly released internal poll is shaking up the political landscape in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, showing Republican challenger Greg Cunningham rapidly closing the gap — and in some metrics, already matching incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez.
The survey, conducted April 26–28 among 879 likely general election voters, reveals a district far more competitive than Democrats have publicly suggested. According to the data, the generic congressional ballot is tied at 45%–45%, signaling a dead-even partisan environment heading into the 2026 cycle.
More notably, Cunningham trails Vasquez by just two points — 43% to 41% — a margin well within the poll’s 3.29% margin of error. That effectively places the race in toss-up territory, despite Cunningham having spent relatively little compared to the incumbent.
Even more striking is the vulnerability of Vasquez himself.
The poll shows Vasquez with a negative approval rating overall, with just 34% of voters viewing him favorably compared to 42% who view him unfavorably — a net -8% image. His standing is even weaker among key voting blocs, including independents, where he is underwater by 16 points, and Hispanic voters, where he posts a -6% rating.
Those numbers suggest deep structural problems for the incumbent heading into a high-turnout election year.
At the same time, Cunningham appears to be gaining traction with exactly the voters Republicans need to win the district. According to the poll, he is already securing nearly 40% support among Hispanic voters and performing strongly among high-propensity voters — those most likely to actually cast ballots.
Perhaps the most important takeaway, however, is Cunningham’s room to grow.
A full 37% of voters surveyed said they had not yet heard of Cunningham, while another 31% said they were unsure about him. Despite that lack of name recognition, he is already statistically tied with a sitting congressman.
That dynamic points to significant upside for the Republican challenger as the race develops and more voters become familiar with his background as a Marine and former Albuquerque police officer.
The broader political environment in NM-02 also appears to be shifting.
The poll found that 51% of voters in the district would prefer a candidate who supports President Donald Trump’s agenda over one aligned with former President Joe Biden — a notable indicator of where voter sentiment is trending.
Meanwhile, the Democrat brand itself is struggling. The survey shows Democrats underwater by 18 points in the district, while Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham carries a -14% approval rating, further dragging down the party’s standing.
Taken together, the numbers paint a clear picture: NM-02 is no longer a safe seat for Democrats.
Republican strategists argue the race is poised to flip as voters turn against what they describe as Vasquez’s far-left agenda.
“Extreme Democrat Gabe Vasquez’s high-tax, anti-police, pro-open border agenda is completely out of line with New Mexicans,” said NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson. “This fall, voters will boot Vasquez out of office and elect Marine and former Albuquerque Police Officer Greg Cunningham to fight for them.”
With Cunningham already within striking distance — and a large share of voters still forming opinions — the race in southern New Mexico is shaping up to be one of the most competitive congressional contests in the country.
And if these trends hold, it could soon become one of the biggest Republican pickup opportunities of the 2026 cycle.
why would anyone vote for Gabe ? is anyone really that stupid ? Enter the Democrat voter who knows nothing but will walk over broken glass in bare feet to vote for their candidate. NM has entered The Twilight Zone.
All NM democrat voters are stupid or insane. Keep voting for the same party and getting bad results then complaining about their problems caused by their vote is insane. However, they may not be voting the same way only their vote isn’t counted only their ballot is counted. Democrats ballot is counted and not how they voted.
Except on election night Gabe will come out magically ahead…
I sure wish NM would have been forced to remove the illegally “created” gerrymandered district in SE NM that now includes a portion of the Albuquerque area that cost Yvette Harrell her seat to Vasquez. I agree that at the last minute, Vasquez will magically win.
YOU GO CUNNINGHAM IM GLAD I HOPE GABE IS VOTED OUT. PLEASE CLEAN UP NM
Go Greg Go. You’ve got this.
New Mexico when will you wake up? Being at the bottom on Good things and at the top of bad things is plain horrible brought to us by the Democrats. 🇺🇸
I hope Vasquez is out! We don’t need him getting rich off of insider trading and selling his votes!
Mr. Cunningham is a solid man, has a great family and has a moral compass that better represents NM and the USA! My family definitely supports him and his platform!
Adios, Vasquez.
Semper fi, Greg.
Flip it Greg
I’ve been hoping to see this shift in New Mexico! I think in the past perhaps the Republicans simply stopped voting when constantly out voted by Dems and those that simply vote the line. Now is our opportunity to fix the problems we have. I agree it’s time to stop being on the bottom of the good and top of the bad in this state. Come on all it’s time to kick butt and take names!!!
Vasquez doesn’t let you post on his comments. He’s afraid.
Greg is here for the people. VOTE GREG CUNNINGHAM! Get things accomplished in NM. We want to be first.
Hey Northem NM do the same. Nothing is happening in Northem NM. Same ole same ole.
No more New Mexico True Blue
Among people with common sense, a putrid turd would poll infinitely higher than Vasquez. However, the demonrat sub-humans in NM never had any common sense and blindly vote for anyone/anything with a D in front of their name.
Isn’t Vasquez the guy who disguised himself while attending an Antifa riot? He denied it of course; must have a twin!
Adios Gabe, there’s a new well qualified Gentleman in town that will bring credibility to NM -2.
All legally registered voters, Greg needs our prayers and support as all republicans candidates running for office, I must say they all have good qualifications and intelligence.
Watching the PBS special on Bregman and Haaland yesterday, it was a pitiful experience to watch..
No brain Haaland and Bravado Bregman…
New Mexico is one of the most beautiful places in America — rich in culture, history, natural beauty, and resilient people. From the mountains of northern New Mexico to the deserts of the south, this state has everything needed to thrive. Yet for too many families, the reality is far different: rising crime, struggling schools, limited economic opportunity, crumbling infrastructure, and communities that feel ignored by leadership that has been in power for far too long.
At some point, loyalty to a political machine has to give way to accountability.
For decades, New Mexico has ranked near the bottom nationally in education outcomes, child well-being, and economic mobility. Too many young people leave because they don’t see opportunity here. Too many small businesses struggle under policies that make growth harder instead of easier. Meanwhile, politicians continue making promises while the same problems persist year after year.
This is not about partisan anger. It’s about results.
New Mexicans deserve leadership focused on practical solutions, transparency, economic growth, public safety, and improving education — not more excuses. We should be leading the Southwest, not lagging behind it. We should be attracting businesses, supporting law enforcement, investing wisely in our children, and creating an environment where working families can succeed.
New Mexico is not doomed to struggle. It is mismanaged.
Change does not mean abandoning our values or culture. It means demanding better from the people entrusted to lead this state. It means recognizing that one-party control without accountability eventually breeds complacency. Healthy government requires competition, fresh ideas, and leaders who understand they work for the people — not the other way around.
The beauty and potential of New Mexico are undeniable. The question is whether we finally choose leadership capable of matching that potential.
New Mexico deserves better. And real change begins when voters decide that “good enough” no longer is.
Thank you, Greg Cunningham for unmasking Zorro ( Gabe Vasquez.)
Me and my neighbors in Hobbs and friends in Lovington would vote for Cunningham in a heartbeat. But Dims in Santa Fe moved solid Republicans out of District 2 and into NM-3 along with the solid Dem Hispanics in northern NM and the Navajo Indians in the four-corners region. We were replaced in NM-2 by Dems from the ABQ south valley and Valencia County. Now our vote for US representative in Congress is useless. Why the Pub Party didn’t follow up with litigation all the way to the Supremes is unknown.
This time we win.
Game over. Gabe, you lost.