Democrat Deb Haaland’s campaign is sounding the alarm after a Republican-backed poll showed New Mexico’s race for governor far closer than many political insiders expected.
In a fundraising email sent Thursday afternoon, Haaland told supporters she had “just got our newest poll,” calling it “a tough one.”
“It shows us trailing by 6 points,” the email stated.
The message was tied to an urgent end-of-month fundraising push, asking supporters to chip in before a deadline “tomorrow at midnight” to help the campaign hit a $50,000 goal. The email also included a graphic showing a “Republican opponent” at 49%, Haaland at 43%, and 8% undecided.
The poll referenced in the email appears to be the same McLaughlin & Associates survey released by Republican Gregg Hull’s campaign. That poll, conducted July 13-15 among 400 likely New Mexico general election voters, initially showed Haaland narrowly ahead of Hull, 46% to 45%, with 9% undecided — a statistical tie within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.
But after voters were given more information, Hull’s campaign says the race shifted to a 49% to 43% Hull lead, the number Haaland’s own fundraising email appears to have seized on.
That means saying Haaland is simply “losing” is not the full picture. The initial ballot showed her technically ahead by one point, though statistically tied. The six-point Hull advantage came on the informed ballot, after voters learned more about the candidates.
Still, the tone of Haaland’s email suggests her campaign is taking the poll seriously.
“MAGA donors have already poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race, and this poll will only encourage them to spend even more trying to buy this election, flip New Mexico red, and bring Donald Trump’s extreme agenda to our state,” the email warned.
“This is an all-hands-on-deck moment,” the campaign added, asking grassroots supporters to “step up right now.”
The poll comes shortly after Haaland won the June Democratic primary in a blowout and as many national observers have treated New Mexico as a safe bet for Democrats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved the race from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic,” arguing that Haaland appeared well-positioned to keep the governor’s mansion in Democrat hands.
But Hull’s campaign is trying to use the new numbers to argue the race is far from over.
“Gregg Hull is currently a more likeable candidate for governor over the polarizing Deb Haaland,” McLaughlin & Associates wrote in its polling memo, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican’s report.
“With the right resources, it’s clear that Gregg Hull can win the election,” the memo stated.
Hull also posted a campaign graphic declaring the race a “statistical tie” on the initial ballot and claiming he leads by six points on the informed ballot.
The graphic, branded with Hull’s campaign logo and the slogan “Experience Matters. Leadership That Works,” shows Hull at 45% and Haaland at 46% on the initial ballot, with 9% undecided. On the informed ballot, it shows Hull at 49%, Haaland at 43%, and 8% undecided.
Hull used the poll to ask supporters for donations, writing that the race is close because voters have not yet fully heard his story.
“This race isn’t close because New Mexicans want more of the same — it’s close because we haven’t finished telling my story yet,” Hull wrote in a fundraising email.
Haaland’s campaign appears to be making the opposite argument: that Republicans will use the poll to raise money, nationalize the race, and attack her with outside spending.
The poll also lands at a messy moment for Democrats. Haaland’s original running mate, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor but later dropped out, forcing party insiders to choose a replacement. Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard narrowly won that insider vote this week after a scramble inside the Democratic Party.
Now, Haaland’s campaign is trying to turn a Republican poll into a fundraising emergency.
Whether the survey proves to be a true warning sign or merely a Republican internal poll designed to boost Hull’s fundraising, one thing is clear: Haaland’s team is no longer acting like New Mexico’s governor race is a sleepy coronation.
The race national Democrats hoped to label “safe” is suddenly being treated by Haaland’s own campaign as an “all-hands-on-deck” fight.
Hull, yeah!
Ive been watching this “repub might win ” thing for a while. remember this article. NJ said the same thing, and the dem won. Virginia the same. Ronchetti was supposed to have a chance, he lost. Yvette Harrel a chance, she lost. Darren white a chance, he lost. Repub voters you need to get off your asses and vote. vote early, dont wait till election day. its now or never NM. Hull needs to swing 20 percent of the dem vote to win. can he do that ? with NM dems ? you tell me.
I thought Haaland had massive money sources from out of state funding. Now she needs more money? This is the foretelling of what will follow if she won. She’ll always be putting her hands out requiring more money. Something just doesn’t add up with Haaland and her handlers.
“No,” is a reasonable thing to say when it comes to Deb.
Haaland had a small fortune donated from out of state. she blew through the money quickly. and for what ? there were few ads on tv. its fishy. one of her money raising organizations was charging the campaign 50 percent of every dollar raised as their fee. haaland cant even manage her campaign finances., the voters are going to give her state finances to destroy ? yes, yes they are.
You are correct Ronda, though I would call it Dum and her panhandlers. The dumdems always claim the conservatives are doing such and such when the truth is that is their playbook. Dum Haaland is crying wolf to raise more money…I have read she has a massive war chest funded by out of state and even international monies. VOTE.
MAGA …Make America God’s Again….that includes our beautiful New Mexico…please contribute to Hull’s campaign and the Republican candidates our running for office..it takes money, so please contribute to their campaign.
AND PRAY..
New Mexico, here is your chance, don’t screw this up or you will be in the same situation as NYC!!! Republicans BETTER get out in Full Force and VOTE!!!
We know the Dems will win unless there is an overwhelming number of votes for Republicans. That is why NM refuses to give access to the over rolls to the feds. The dems control the voter rolls to enable to have the dead vote to fill the small gaps across the state. You only need to win by one.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize this woman has nothing constructive to offer the great state of New Mexico except destruction.
Hull will get my vote!
The only extreme agenda is what DEI Deb is pushing. Stalin was too conservative for these folks.
This may be our last chance, New Mexico. I live on SS but I’ve donated a goodly amount of my income to the Hull campaign. Please PRAY, DONATE AND VOTE!
Deadbeat Deb hasn’t payed off her student loans. With
The USAID faucet turned off and Democrat party in debt, not so easy to keep the machine going.
Hard to believe she could ever be accepted into college, like the dolt jackson we are saddled with for life in SCOTUS. my application for a scholarship was nixed during another commie, carter, while maintainig a 3.3 on the deans list..my OSU counselor flatly said “your the wrong color”…reverse discrimination is the hallmark of dem politics since lbj had jfk murdered ! She will win, no matter what.
I have some used toilet paper I would like to donate to Drunken Dweeb’s campaign.
In the original “spaceballs” ( that hollywood is ruining right now), yogurt talked about merchandising. how about tp that says “quran…the toilet paper”
Hull gets my vote
I think Gregg Hull would do himself a favor by distancing himself from MAGA. He describes himself as a moderate Republican, and for me that is what resonates most. He is BY FAR the better candidate. Indeed experience matters, and he has that experience. He also doesn’t waste much time bashing Deb Haaland, rather he tells New Mexicans what he will do for our state to make it better. I find that tact refreshing. He simply has to win this election.
Sidebar : with child abuse rampant in nm, ledgar f. is messing around in ne ohio (!) in a dubious abuse case from a nasty divorvce of a repub candidate…this is how vitriolic femdems project power, that or cheating…focus on nm ,cunswaylow !
Greg Hull can win by telling facts ! Trump wins by telling facts, Desantis wins by telling facts, we win with truth and exposure of deception. TDS republicans are a problem and will give up like crying children. disgusting!!
We already have the most unqualified people running our state and as our federal representatives in Washington. Why would we want to elect someone like Hull, who is eminently qualified, when we can have an imbecile like Haaland? My dog is a genius compared to her. He actually is very smart, Haaland, not so much.
https://rumble.com/v3l886q-un-agenda-30-x-30-exposing-the-governments-secret-plan-to-grab-30-of-americ.html
Governor Lujan signed NM up for Agenda 30 land grab. DO NOT TAKE ANY MONEY FROM FEDERAL OR STATE IN RELATION TO YOUR LAND! They will use it to as a way to put your land in a conservatorship by declaring it needed to save whatever bug/animal they deem needs to be saved. It is a blatant land grab.
https://rumble.com/v6zsw0o-enemy-at-the-gates-trevor-loudon-unmasks-the-sinister-alliance-working-to-d.html
Deb Haaland is a communist working to bring down America from within.