Trump wins presidency but narrowly misses historic New Mexico flip
In a surprisingly strong showing, 45th President Donald Trump came closer than any Republican presidential candidate in recent memory to flipping New Mexico, a state that has been a Democratic stronghold for over two decades.
Though ultimately falling short of victory in the state, Trump’s narrow loss in the state represents a seismic shift, giving Republicans renewed hope for future success in New Mexico. His performance signaled growing support for the GOP, driven by solid backing from rural and suburban areas and a deepening appeal among independent voters, losing the state by only around 5.5 points as opposed to 10 points in 2020 to Joe Biden.
Despite narrowly missing in New Mexico, the 45th President will return to the White House for a second term after an incredible election night victory. As of 7:55 a.m., Trump leads Kamala Harris nationally with 277 electoral college delegates, while he is leading in the popular vote.
While Trump fell just shy of capturing New Mexico’s five electoral votes, the state witnessed significant Republican victories down-ballot. In a hotly contested race for New Mexico’s U.S. Senate seat, Republican Nella Domenici mounted a formidable campaign against incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich. Domenici, leveraging her family’s political legacy and a platform focused on energy independence, economic revitalization, and conservative values, came within striking distance of Heinrich. Ultimately, Heinrich retained his seat by a slimmer margin than expected, with preliminary results showing a tight contest ending with Heinrich at 55% and Domenici at 45%.
Another key race saw far-left incumbent Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez defeat Republican former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s Second Congressional District. Herrell’s narrow loss proved how powerful extreme Democrat gerrymandering for political power can be in a state fully dominated by the far-left in the Legislature.
Herrell wrote on X following the news, “The results tonight weren’t what we hoped for, but I’m so grateful to the incredible people of #NM02 for their support over the years. With @realDonaldTrump back in the White House, our country’s future is bright. Let’s come together and Make America Great Again!
Both of New Mexico’s other U.S. Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez were reelected by 12-point margins.
However, nationally, Republicans lead in the fight to keep the U.S. House in GOP hands, while Republicans successfully flipped the U.S. Senate with pickups in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
The GOP also made marginal gains in the state Legislature, picking up seats in both chambers. While Democrats retained their majorities, the Republican advances marked a significant step toward a more competitive political landscape. The party’s growth in traditionally blue districts has sparked optimism among New Mexico conservatives who see these results as evidence of a potential shift in voter priorities and political alliances.
According to the New York Times, at the current moment, Republicans have officially picked up one legislative seat to boost their minority from currently 25 seats in the New Mexico House of Representatives to 26 seats, with some races too close to call at the moment.
Republican Kim Skaggs narrowly trails incumbent state Rep. Nathan Small (D-Las Cruces), who is the chairman of the powerful New Mexico House Appropriations and Finance Committee. Small currently has 51% to Skaggs’ 49% with 95 percent of the vote in. Democrat State Rep. Kathleen Cates in the metro area narrowly leads challenger Ali Ennenga 52% to 48%, Democrat Sarah Silva narrowly leads Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd in a Las Cruces-area House seat by a margin of 50.2% to 49.8%, and incumbent Democrat State Rep. Charlotte Little leads Republican Nathan Brooks 52% to 48% in the Albuquerque-area district.
Republicans, however, successfully flipped the 28th House District, which was picked up by former State Rep. Rebecca Dow against Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo.
In the state Senate, Republicans had similar growth, picking up one seat as of this morning, per the New York Times, to boost their 15-seat minority to 16 seats. Republican Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block flipped a Democrat seat 53% to 47% in the Rio Rancho area, and former state Sen. Gabe Ramos flipped an open Democrat seat in Silver City, while Republicans held onto open seats currently filled by GOP members.
The constitutional amendments on the ballot increasing veteran property tax exemptions passed by wide margins, while a change to the New Mexico Constitution removing the UNM Law School dean from the Judicial Nominating Commission only barely passed with a 51% to 49% margin.
Trump’s narrow loss in New Mexico and the GOP’s legislative gains indicate that the state may be closer to becoming a battleground than ever before. For New Mexico Republicans, this year’s election represents the most hopeful political moment in decades, suggesting that future races could bring even more change and opportunities to flip the state red.
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