Haaland hits panic button after poll shows gov’s race tightening

Democrat Deb Haaland’s campaign is sounding the alarm after a Republican-backed poll showed New Mexico’s race for governor far closer than many political insiders expected.

In a fundraising email sent Thursday afternoon, Haaland told supporters she had “just got our newest poll,” calling it “a tough one.”

“It shows us trailing by 6 points,” the email stated.

The message was tied to an urgent end-of-month fundraising push, asking supporters to chip in before a deadline “tomorrow at midnight” to help the campaign hit a $50,000 goal. The email also included a graphic showing a “Republican opponent” at 49%, Haaland at 43%, and 8% undecided.

The poll referenced in the email appears to be the same McLaughlin & Associates survey released by Republican Gregg Hull’s campaign. That poll, conducted July 13-15 among 400 likely New Mexico general election voters, initially showed Haaland narrowly ahead of Hull, 46% to 45%, with 9% undecided — a statistical tie within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.

But after voters were given more information, Hull’s campaign says the race shifted to a 49% to 43% Hull lead, the number Haaland’s own fundraising email appears to have seized on.

That means saying Haaland is simply “losing” is not the full picture. The initial ballot showed her technically ahead by one point, though statistically tied. The six-point Hull advantage came on the informed ballot, after voters learned more about the candidates.

Still, the tone of Haaland’s email suggests her campaign is taking the poll seriously.

“MAGA donors have already poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race, and this poll will only encourage them to spend even more trying to buy this election, flip New Mexico red, and bring Donald Trump’s extreme agenda to our state,” the email warned.

“This is an all-hands-on-deck moment,” the campaign added, asking grassroots supporters to “step up right now.”

The poll comes shortly after Haaland won the June Democratic primary in a blowout and as many national observers have treated New Mexico as a safe bet for Democrats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved the race from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic,” arguing that Haaland appeared well-positioned to keep the governor’s mansion in Democrat hands.

But Hull’s campaign is trying to use the new numbers to argue the race is far from over.

“Gregg Hull is currently a more likeable candidate for governor over the polarizing Deb Haaland,” McLaughlin & Associates wrote in its polling memo, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican’s report.

“With the right resources, it’s clear that Gregg Hull can win the election,” the memo stated.

Hull also posted a campaign graphic declaring the race a “statistical tie” on the initial ballot and claiming he leads by six points on the informed ballot.

The graphic, branded with Hull’s campaign logo and the slogan “Experience Matters. Leadership That Works,” shows Hull at 45% and Haaland at 46% on the initial ballot, with 9% undecided. On the informed ballot, it shows Hull at 49%, Haaland at 43%, and 8% undecided.

Hull used the poll to ask supporters for donations, writing that the race is close because voters have not yet fully heard his story.

“This race isn’t close because New Mexicans want more of the same — it’s close because we haven’t finished telling my story yet,” Hull wrote in a fundraising email.

Haaland’s campaign appears to be making the opposite argument: that Republicans will use the poll to raise money, nationalize the race, and attack her with outside spending.

The poll also lands at a messy moment for Democrats. Haaland’s original running mate, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor but later dropped out, forcing party insiders to choose a replacement. Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard narrowly won that insider vote this week after a scramble inside the Democratic Party.

Now, Haaland’s campaign is trying to turn a Republican poll into a fundraising emergency.

Whether the survey proves to be a true warning sign or merely a Republican internal poll designed to boost Hull’s fundraising, one thing is clear: Haaland’s team is no longer acting like New Mexico’s governor race is a sleepy coronation.

The race national Democrats hoped to label “safe” is suddenly being treated by Haaland’s own campaign as an “all-hands-on-deck” fight.