As early voting wrapped up on Saturday, New Mexico saw a substantial turnout, with 663,874 ballots cast. According to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s office, this figure represents about 48.2% of the state’s registered voters. Comparatively, the 2020 election saw a turnout of 928,230 voters or 68% of eligible voters. Early voting numbers for 2024 suggest that 71.5% of the 2020 turnout has already been reached, indicating significant interest in the election.
The breakdown of the early voting turnout by party affiliation shows that Democrats cast 307,311 ballots (46.2%). Republicans followed with 243,376 votes, making up 36.6% of the total. Voters registered as Decline to State (DTS) or Independents (Declined to State voters) accounted for 104,904 ballots, or 15.8%, while Libertarians and other parties contributed smaller portions, with 5,301 (0.79%) and 2,982 (0.44%) ballots, respectively.
Analyzing the early voting turnout by county reveals an engaged Republican base in key counties. For example, Republicans in higher-population counties outpaced Democrats in participation percentages in Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Otero, and Sandoval counties. This trend highlights areas where the GOP may have gained momentum compared to past elections.
Adding to the intrigue, recent polling shows a tightening race in New Mexico. As we previously reported, a recent Rasmussen poll suggests that 45th President Donald Trump has gained considerable ground against incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in New Mexico, hinting that the state may be more competitive than in recent cycles.
Mid-October analysis by Piñon Post editor and state Rep. John Block (R-Alamogordo) using leftist polls shows the Trump campaign’s path to victory, factoring Democrat and Republican vote flipping from the past presidential election and margins in polls that showed a larger disparity between Harris and Trump in the Land of Enchantment. The recent Rasmussen poll, which came out after Block’s analysis, shows an even closer race, with Trump leading, according to vote-switchers’ figures.
According to the Republican Party of New Mexico, “Republicans continue to outpace and dominate in the Same Day Registration counts. As long as Republicans are in the deficit of voters, Voter registration needs to remain a top priority in every county!”
Historically, New Mexico has leaned blue in presidential elections, but the recent surge in Republican and Independent early voting turnout could signal a shift. The Rasmussen poll positions New Mexico as a closer race than anticipated, which has generated interest from national political observers who traditionally view the state as a secure Democratic stronghold.
If these early voting patterns hold and Election Day turnout continues to surge, New Mexico may be on track for one of its highest voter turnouts in recent history. Both parties are mobilizing to make a final push, with Republicans aiming to capitalize on their strong showing in early voting and Democrats looking to secure their base. As the final votes are cast, all eyes will be on New Mexico, which could be pivotal in shaping the national political landscape.
It’s unlikely NM will flip significantly. The NM economy is far too dependent on government public sector employment so they will vote for more tax and spend big government candidates, which means Democrats. So long as government is the biggest meal ticket NM will remain Socialist.
I’m optimistic. Let’s see how many “found” boxes show up on the 6th.