Vasquez on the ropes after voting against biggest middle-class tax cut

A newly released poll from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) suggests Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM-02) faces an uphill battle heading into the 2026 election, with Republican messaging centered on taxes, inflation, and immigration resonating strongly across battleground districts.

The survey, conducted in 46 competitive House districts—including New Mexico’s Second Congressional District—found that Democrats like Vasquez who voted against the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” may pay a steep political price. The legislation, championed by President Donald Trump and House Republicans, included what the NRCC calls “the largest middle-class tax cut in generations,” expanded Medicaid funding, and provisions to bolster border security and national defense.

According to the poll, voters are significantly less likely to support Democrats who opposed the package. Key liabilities identified for Democrats include:

Backing the “largest tax hike since WWII”—$4.5 trillion affecting 80% of Americans (65% less likely to support)

• Raising taxes by $3,000 on the average family (65%)
• Cutting the Child Tax Credit (63%)
• Fueling inflation with what Republicans describe as “reckless spending” (62%)
• Raising taxes to fund healthcare for illegal immigrants (61%)
• Providing taxpayer-funded benefits to illegal immigrants (60%)
• Opposing work requirements for welfare recipients (59%)

“These numbers show exactly why Gabe Vasquez is vulnerable,” said NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson. “If raising taxes and rewarding illegal immigrants is Democrat Gabe Vasquez’s idea of ‘public service,’ voters have another word for it: unemployment.”

The NRCC memo emphasizes that Republicans are gaining traction on voter concerns about the cost of living, where inflation and affordability top the list of priorities. The poll found that 47% of voters identified grocery costs as a key concern, followed by healthcare (34%) and rent or mortgage payments (31%). Republicans argue their legislation directly addressed those issues, while Democrats stood in the way.

The data also showed a shifting perception of which party “cares more about people like you.” Once a Democratic advantage, the metric is now nearly tied at 37–40, representing a ten-point swing toward Republicans since 2017.

Republicans are using the poll to sharpen their offensive strategy going into 2026. Their messaging playbook stresses “contrast framing,” casting GOP lawmakers as champions of tax relief and Democrats as tax-hikers aligned with Washington elites. “Stay on offense; this is the signature debate of 2026, and winning it means holding the majority,” the NRCC memo advises.

The Vasquez campaign has not yet responded to the NRCC’s claims. However, Democrats are likely to counter that the GOP’s proposals favor the wealthy and could threaten long-term fiscal stability, despite that not being the case. 

Vasquez narrowly reclaimed New Mexico’s Second District in 2024 after barely winning it two years earlier, making the seat one of the most closely watched swing districts in the nation. With Republicans already targeting him, the NRCC poll underscores just how competitive the 2026 race is likely to be.