NM’s influence in the 2024 elections: How the Land of Enchantment ranked

In the wake of the critical 2024 elections, a recent WalletHub study sheds light on voter power across the nation. While some states emerge as key battlegrounds, others hold less sway in determining the outcome of presidential and Senate races. For New Mexico, the data reveals a mixed but intriguing picture of voter influence.

Senate Power Rankings: New Mexico in the Top 10

In the Senate rankings, New Mexico ranks 10th with a Voter Power Score of 51.63. This places the state firmly in the upper echelon of influence among the 33 ranked states. Vermont, Wyoming, and North Dakota take the top three spots, highlighting the outsized impact smaller states often enjoy due to equal Senate representation.

New Mexico’s relatively high ranking in Senate influence stems from its smaller population relative to its two Senate seats. While larger states like California (ranked 33rd) and Texas (32nd) see their individual voters’ impact diluted, New Mexico’s voters carry significantly more weight per capita. This dynamic underscores the importance of New Mexico’s participation in shaping the composition of the Senate, where every vote could determine critical policy decisions in the coming years.

Presidential Rankings: A Swing but Less Powerful State

In the presidential election rankings, New Mexico’s Voter Power Score is 65.01, placing it 14th among the 49 ranked states and Washington, D.C. While this score highlights a moderate level of influence, it’s worth noting that the top-ranking states, such as Nevada (201.78) and North Carolina (186.29), are all considered fiercely contested battlegrounds.

New Mexico’s middle-ground position reflects its historical voting patterns. Although the state has swung between parties in past elections, recent trends show it leaning Democratic. As a result, New Mexico’s role in deciding presidential outcomes has lessened compared to pivotal swing states like Georgia and Wisconsin. However, its influence still surpasses larger, more predictable states like New York (ranked 33rd) and California (42nd).

The Broader Context: Why Voter Power Matters

The WalletHub study highlights disparities in voter influence stemming from the structure of the Electoral College and Senate representation. For example, while Senate races afford smaller states like New Mexico a greater say, the presidential election’s winner-takes-all system in most states diminishes the influence of those not in highly competitive regions. Nonetheless, New Mexico’s relatively strong performance in both rankings underscores the importance of voter turnout and civic engagement in the state.

Methodology

WalletHub calculated Voter Power Scores based on factors such as population size, number of electors, and win probabilities. The study incorporated data from the U.S. Census Bureau, YouGov, and other sources.