30 counties shift right: Trump’s monumental NM breakthrough
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump’s campaign saw notable gains in New Mexico, coming closer than any Republican candidate in decades to flipping the state.
Though Kamala Harris ultimately retained New Mexico by a margin of just 5.5 points, Trump’s performance showcased a dramatic shift, reflecting increased support from Hispanic and Native American communities as well as rural voters. Across 30 out of 33 counties, New Mexico experienced a noticeable rightward shift, giving hope to conservatives aiming for future victories.
Trump’s success was particularly evident in counties with large Hispanic and Native American populations. McKinley County, which is predominantly Native American, shifted 7 points toward Trump, marking one of the most significant movements. The impact of his outreach was consistent with national trends, as Politico noted: “The Trump campaign’s low-key efforts to court Native American voters appeared to have paid dividends. Across the map, in traditionally Democratic, predominantly Native American counties, Trump made noticeable inroads… New Mexico’s McKinley County saw an even bigger movement toward Trump.”
Counties with substantial Hispanic populations also leaned more toward Trump than in previous elections. Rio Arriba, Guadalupe, and Mora Counties all recorded 7-point swings to the right, demonstrating a growing conservative influence. Guadalupe County, for example, saw Trump capture 48% of the vote despite the area being heavily Democratic in registration, underscoring the shifting political landscape.
Notably, Trump’s gains were not limited to a few counties; he increased his vote share in 29 of the state’s 33 counties, showcasing broad-based appeal that transcended traditional GOP strongholds. Only three counties—Los Alamos, Sierra, and Union—saw a decrease in Trump’s support.
The top counties that shifted most toward Trump were McKinley, Rio Arriba, Guadalupe, Mora, San Miguel, Harding, Doña Ana, Socorro, Hidalgo, and Taos. These shifts indicate growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s grip in traditionally left-leaning areas and a potential path for Republican gains in future elections.
While Trump fell short of flipping the state, his substantial gains and the GOP’s overall momentum represent a historic opportunity for conservatives to turn New Mexico into a competitive battleground. This election was a hopeful sign that the state’s political landscape is evolving, offering new possibilities for Republicans in the years to come.
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