Hull keeps it close as Haaland’s unfavorables outpace favorables

A new KOB 4/SurveyUSA poll is showing what is increasingly difficult to dismiss in New Mexico’s race for governor: Democrat Deb Haaland is ahead, but Republican Gregg Hull remains within single digits with less than a month until Election Day.

The survey of 567 likely voters found Haaland at 47% and Hull at 41%, with another 12% still undecided.

That six-point margin is notable for another reason: a separate Albuquerque Journal poll released in late August also found Haaland ahead by exactly six points, 49% to 43%, with 8% undecided. Because the two polls were conducted by different firms and with different methodologies, they are not a direct trend line. But taken together, they reinforce the picture of a race that is competitive rather than a runaway.

Hull, the former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho, therefore remains within striking distance of a candidate who entered the general election with far greater statewide and national name recognition, a substantial fundraising advantage and the benefit of running in a state where Democrats have dominated recent statewide contests. The Journal previously described its own six-point result as “closer than expected.” 

Haaland leads — but her favorability numbers flash warning signs

The head-to-head numbers are only part of the story.

KOB’s separate favorability survey of 673 registered voters found 31% viewed Haaland favorably, while 35% viewed her unfavorably.

Another 19% were neutral, while 16% said they were unfamiliar with her.

That means Haaland is underwater on favorability despite being the better-known candidate.

The numbers are even more difficult for Haaland among independents, a bloc that could matter significantly in a close race. According to KOB, just 21% of independent voters viewed Haaland favorably, while 32% viewed her unfavorably.

University of New Mexico political science professor Tim Krebs told KOB that Haaland’s campaign would probably prefer to see a wider advantage.

“I think the country is in an anti-incumbent mood,” Krebs said. “I think that Deb Haaland is more associated with the establishment then Gregg Hull is, so some of that’s hurting her right now.”

He added that Democrats still have structural advantages in New Mexico and could benefit from strong motivation among their voters.

Hull has a different problem: voters are still learning who he is

Hull’s favorability numbers present almost the inverse challenge.

KOB found 29% of voters viewed Hull favorably and 21% unfavorably, giving him a positive net rating. But 24% described themselves as neutral and another 27% said they were not familiar with him.

That means more than half of respondents either had no strong opinion of Hull or did not know enough about him to form one.

Among independents, Hull stood at 21% favorable and 26% unfavorable.

The numbers suggest the former mayor still has considerable room to introduce himself to voters before Nov. 3 — but also faces the challenge of doing so quickly.

Hull served as Rio Rancho mayor for 12 years before launching his statewide campaign. He won the Republican gubernatorial nomination in June after defeating Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez, despite being outspent during portions of the primary. 

Huge gender divide

KOB’s poll also found a striking gender split.

Among women, Haaland leads Hull 54% to 33%, a commanding 21-point advantage.

Among men, however, Hull leads 48% to 40%.

Older voters are substantially closer. Among voters 50 and older, Haaland leads by just one point, 47% to 46%.

Among voters younger than 50, the raw KOB numbers put Haaland at 47% and Hull at 43%.

Independent voters remain one of the biggest open questions. Haaland leads that group 44% to 34%, but a substantial 22% of independents remain undecided.

That undecided figure is particularly important with early voting approaching.

Second poll, same six-point margin

The latest KOB result closely resembles the Journal poll released Aug. 30.

That survey found Haaland at 49%, Hull at 43% and 8% undecided. Research & Polling Inc. President Brian Sanderoff called the margin “narrower than many people expected, including me,” although he said Hull still faced an uphill battle. 

The consistency of the topline margin is striking: six points in August, six points again in October.

Again, the surveys were produced independently and should not be treated as if the same pollster measured movement over time. Still, neither shows Haaland holding anything resembling an insurmountable advantage.

That is especially noteworthy given the enormous financial disparity between the campaigns.

During the most recent reporting period, Haaland raised about $3.43 million, compared with approximately $943,000 for Hull — nearly four times as much. 

Yet the public polling continues to show a single-digit contest.

Republicans still face history — but the race is very much alive

New Mexico remains a difficult statewide environment for Republicans. Democrats have controlled the governor’s office since 2019, and Hull would be the first Republican to win a statewide New Mexico race since 2016, according to the Journal.

But six points is not a blowout.

The 2022 gubernatorial election between Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti also ultimately ended with roughly a six-point margin — the same gap the Journal found between Haaland and Hull in August. 

Hull still has work to do, particularly among women, independents and voters who remain unfamiliar with him.

Haaland, meanwhile, has a different vulnerability: she is already extremely well-known, yet more voters in KOB’s survey view her unfavorably than favorably.

With 12% of likely voters still undecided and Hull six points behind, the new poll shows Haaland remains the leader — but it also gives Republicans measurable reason to believe the race remains within reach.

For a contest that some once expected to be little more than a Haaland coronation, New Mexico’s governor race is still very much a race.