New Mexico, historically overlooked in national election strategies, is emerging as a potential battleground state for the 2024 presidential race. Recent polling shows that 45th President Donald Trump is closing in on Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, with just a three-point difference between them in the latest KA Consulting poll. Trump is polling at 46% while Harris holds 49%, but the margin of error of +/- 4% makes the race essentially a tie.
Key Issues Favor Trump
The economy and border security are two key issues driving New Mexico voters to the polls this year. In the KA Consulting survey, 47% of respondents cited the economy and inflation as their top concern, followed closely by 43% pointing to immigration and border security. These are two areas where Trump has traditionally performed well, particularly in a state that shares a border with Mexico. Trump’s stance on these topics aligns with many New Mexico voters, especially among its sizable Hispanic population.
Trump’s improved standing with Hispanic voters nationwide is another factor making New Mexico more competitive. For instance, a recent Florida poll showed 55% of Hispanic voters supporting Trump, a demographic where Harris has seen diminished support. According to NBC News, Harris has lost ground with Latino voters, now polling at 54% compared to Trump’s 40% among this critical group. This is a significant shift, given that Trump garnered just 19% of the Latino vote in 2016 and 27% in 2020.
Kennedy and Anti-Harris Campaigns Boost Trump
Further complicating the race is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to withdraw and endorse Trump, which could provide a notable boost. Kennedy was polling around 8% in New Mexico, and his exit might sway undecided voters toward Trump. Additionally, an aggressive Election Freedom Inc. ad campaign targeting Harris’s policy failures has the potential to further shift voter sentiment in Trump’s favor.
High Turnout in Early Voting
High early voting turnout also signals that New Mexico could be in play. According to the Albuquerque Journal, Republicans slightly outpaced Democrats in early voting, with 4.6% of registered Republicans casting ballots compared to 4.2% of Democrats by mid-October. While New Mexico hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, the tight polling numbers suggest that the state could be within reach for Trump in 2024.
Given these trends, New Mexico could very well emerge as a key state in the 2024 election despite its long-standing blue leanings. Trump’s strong focus on issues important to New Mexicans and his improving numbers among Hispanic voters make this a state to watch closely in the weeks ahead.
Somehow it just seems plain unfair how the top cities (in the sheer numbers) can override those in the rural areas of the state. The gerrymandering of districts exacerbates the problems so lets pray that enough dems realize that Trump will be a far more successful president than Harris and vote accordingly.
I agree with your position that high density population areas have a disproportionate influence on voting results. It transcends the “one-person, one-vote” idea of fairness as the interests and needs of rural areas are often very different than those of big cities.
I’ve often wondered why we can’t have an electoral college model in the states where each county is assigned a number of electors and those electors actually decide the winning candidates at the state level.
That sounds very interesting.
I hope and pray that as well.
Better yet let’s pray there is no hanky panky taking place in the election. 🫢
Our family did our part and voted yesterday. If you don’t vote then you are censoring your own voice. Go and vote! Don’t make it easy for them to cheat!
My wife voted early for Trump/Vance. Let your voices be heard!
I too voted early (yesterday) and there were a lot of people there who were voting for the Trump/Vance ticket. They are sick and tired of the Democrat run round house here in NM. Praying the Republicans and conservatives take over the round house and impeach the evil queen, MLG who celebrates the murdering of innocent babies in the womb.
Praying for President Trump and JD Vance to win this election and also the Republicans who are running against the comrades (Democrats) of MLG. and clean this state. Praying for Gods mercy on us all.
Amen! Blessed be God!
We (3 of us) voted last week for all Republican candidates and it was an easy choice. Republican Party is aligned with Godly values whereas the Democratic Party is not. That ought to be enough for all Judeo/Christian people to vote Republican.
I voted in person today for Trump/Vance. I took my neighbor with me and she voted for Trump/Vance also.
I forgot to mention that we both voted republican down the ticket.
I forgot to mention that we both voted republican down the ticket.
It would help if Trump visited.
It would help if Nella supports Trump. I held my nose tightly and voted for her but she is a big disappointment. f*** moderate Bushies.
Nella said on KOAT debate against Martin Heinrich that she is voting for
Donald Trump, watch it for yourself.
I voted for Trump Vance…the parking lots was packed on Saturday when it opened at 10AM. Drove by at 2 and it was packed, went by yesterday at noon and it was packed.
Went by the county annex to obtain a sample copy on Wednesday of last week. I had to park 2 block away. Very happy to see more people voting. Prayers are being answered by the turnouts, hopefully the turnout is painting the state red.
Myself & only lady friend voted Saturday for the Trump and His VP.
I can’t understand why anyone in NM would want an open border and/or legalization of Fetenol. We do not need drugs and illegal aliens entering our state.
We do need enforcement of our Immigration and Custems Laws.
Before I foget we also need a Goveror that believes in the law and is not trying to increase her bank account by violating the law.
I haven’t voted yet but hubby & I will be voting Trump/Vance & everyone I know in New Mexico has voted that way. Refreshing to see all the comments here saying the same. Trump 2024!! 🇺🇸