30 counties shift right: Trump’s monumental NM breakthrough

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump’s campaign saw notable gains in New Mexico, coming closer than any Republican candidate in decades to flipping the state.

Though Kamala Harris ultimately retained New Mexico by a margin of just 5.5 points, Trump’s performance showcased a dramatic shift, reflecting increased support from Hispanic and Native American communities as well as rural voters. Across 30 out of 33 counties, New Mexico experienced a noticeable rightward shift, giving hope to conservatives aiming for future victories.

Trump’s success was particularly evident in counties with large Hispanic and Native American populations. McKinley County, which is predominantly Native American, shifted 7 points toward Trump, marking one of the most significant movements. The impact of his outreach was consistent with national trends, as Politico noted: “The Trump campaign’s low-key efforts to court Native American voters appeared to have paid dividends. Across the map, in traditionally Democratic, predominantly Native American counties, Trump made noticeable inroads… New Mexico’s McKinley County saw an even bigger movement toward Trump.”

Counties with substantial Hispanic populations also leaned more toward Trump than in previous elections. Rio Arriba, Guadalupe, and Mora Counties all recorded 7-point swings to the right, demonstrating a growing conservative influence. Guadalupe County, for example, saw Trump capture 48% of the vote despite the area being heavily Democratic in registration, underscoring the shifting political landscape.

Notably, Trump’s gains were not limited to a few counties; he increased his vote share in 29 of the state’s 33 counties, showcasing broad-based appeal that transcended traditional GOP strongholds. Only three counties—Los Alamos, Sierra, and Union—saw a decrease in Trump’s support.

The top counties that shifted most toward Trump were McKinley, Rio Arriba, Guadalupe, Mora, San Miguel, Harding, Doña Ana, Socorro, Hidalgo, and Taos. These shifts indicate growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s grip in traditionally left-leaning areas and a potential path for Republican gains in future elections.

While Trump fell short of flipping the state, his substantial gains and the GOP’s overall momentum represent a historic opportunity for conservatives to turn New Mexico into a competitive battleground. This election was a hopeful sign that the state’s political landscape is evolving, offering new possibilities for Republicans in the years to come.

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15 thoughts on “30 counties shift right: Trump’s monumental NM breakthrough”

  1. Couldn’t agree more. New Mexico is waking up to the fact that for over 100 years the democrats have counted on New Mexicans to always vote for the little”d.” And what has NM gained? We have the worst public schools, the worst child safety, the worst poverty rate, and dictator governor. So now it is the right time for those of us who want to change NM to the prosperous state it can be to act. Piñon Post is one of the avenues for that change.

  2. There is still work to be done. New Mexico needs a conservative governor/government and more conservatives need to get out and vote.

  3. We need a real Leader in the RNC in New Mexico. Not a good ole boy that only talks about his day in office and only has someone write letters of outrage…. Just my opinion.

    1. Yes, I believe my sticker that read : My vote counted! Was a misprint. It should have read : My vote was “counted” on a Dominion machine!

      Here’s some food for thought- the definition of Dominion – Control or the exercise of control; sovereignty.

      Huh. They sure do exercise control over the votes, don’t they?

    2. I’m not sure why people are still holding on to this disproven conspiracy theory about Dominion voting machines. I’ve worked many elections and every vote reported by the Dominion printout and electronic tabulation can be verified by counting and checking the paper ballots that are stored in the machine. This is done every year for random precincts and races.
      In addition Dominion won a huge lawsuit against Fox News for even talking about this possibility.
      There is simply no way that the machines could both tamper with the count and also change the markings on the submitted paper ballots.

  4. Sadly, in Grant County where I live, Trump and other GOP statewide candidates did not do well, yet three county-wide Republican candidates did win. That meant many Grant County Democrats crossed over and voted for them. Go figure.

  5. What we need is Scott Presler and hos organization to come here for the next election cycle. I have communicated this request to him, and we’ll see what his response is. Our RPNM is woefully managed by an inept never Trumper.

    1. Mike, what have you personally been doing the last four years to turn NM red? You can’t expect Scott Presley to do everything. I know that in the last 4 yrs a small group of Republicans have been registering voters, knocking doors and making phone calls. Steve Pearce got Donald Trump to ABQ, again what have you done?

  6. Americans –New Mexicans are tired of the bullsh** Biden regime! Well done New Mexico!! It’s now time to have the Biden regime operatives shut down!! look out Benny-boy,Hiney-lick,Vasquez,and Moochie Loserjan-gruesome…

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